The stock market is having a positive increase after implementing the KRX system since May 5. The main driving force of the market is that investors are starting to disburse, cash flow is very active with liquidity on 3 exchanges reaching an average of VND17,000 billion/session in the last 4 sessions.
Dr. Nguyen Duy Phuong, Investment Director of DG Capital, assessed that cash flow is "reviving", stocks are receiving positive information about real estate, public investment, oil and gas... Importantly, foreign investors are returning to buy stocks that have been net sold before. Notably, there has been a 4th consecutive net buying session of foreign investors, since applying the new KRX system.
According to the April market assessment report, SGI Capital assessed that the US's temporary suspension of countervailing tariffs for 90 days (except China) has helped stabilize the financial market; the process of promoting negotiations has gradually regained confidence in the market about a more reasonable tariff rate.
From there, businesses and consumers will adjust their investment and consumption plans and adapt to the new order. The financial market will also gradually qualify the impact of tax on business groups.
SGI Capital continues to maintain the base scenario with an average tariff rate much lower than the initially announced rate.
In addition, according to SGI Capital's observation, the Dollar Index has decreased by 10% from the top of the 2025 head, ending the 4 -year price increase from the beginning of 2021. This is the period of strong inflation that caused the Fed to tighten monetary policy and maintain high interest rates. The Fed entering the interest rate stage may be the beginning of a weaker USD cycle and the global capital flow is no longer too popular with US financial assets.
This was once the main reason why many emerging stock markets were withdrawn capital, in which Vietnam was under pressure to sell a record net of 8 billion USD since 2021.
SGI Capital believes that FeD's interest rate cut and weak USD are an important condition for central banks of countries to proactively operate monetary policy, while FII capital can return to emerging markets to open a better growth period for financial markets as well as the global economy, including Vietnam.
In its management activities, the State Bank has been very proactive in opening exchange rates early when the risk of tariffs increased to neutralize the tax effect while still supporting stable low interest rates. Since the beginning of the year, VND has decreased its price compared to most currencies of major countries as well as in the region.
According to SGI Capital, this will reduce upcoming exchange rate pressure on the one hand, and help Vietnamese exporters strengthen their competitiveness in the face of trade disruptions created by tariffs.
Many currencies in the recently strongly appreciated area against the USD are an early signal that pressure on VND may have passed the most stressful period, thereby gradually opening up more room for the State Bank to operate monetary policy when the Fed officially lowers interest rates in the second half of the year.
In April, foreign investors continued to net sell nearly VND14,500 billion, the strongest month of net selling since the beginning of the year. However, in late April and early May, foreign investors have returned to net buying.
SGI Capital also observed that domestic capital flows that actively paid net were very strong and participated in buying during strong selling weeks and call margin under the tariff effect.
The decline of the Dollar Index has gradually reduced the pressure of foreign investors to withdraw capital and the low valuations of many stocks have begun to attract domestic and foreign investment cash flow.
