Looking back at the stock market in April, directly affected by tax concerns, most of the stocks of industry groups were under strong downward pressure, especially stocks such as industrial park real estate, exports, and oil and gas. When the market recovers, these industry groups have slow and weak growth.
In April, foreign investors still withdrew more than VND13,000 billion on HOSE, with transactions and agreements at VIC and VHM alone accounting for more than VND4,000 billion.
Regarding the VN-Index, it is still balancing around 1,220 points after fluctuating strongly due to tariff factors from the US.
In the last trading week before the long holiday, the stock market continued to trade within a narrow range, with liquidity falling sharply.
Weak liquidity clearly reflects defensive psychology, when time factors and information concerns dominate cash flow.
Entering May, the focus of the market's attention during this period is the KRX system, which will officially "go-live" from May 5, 2025. Many securities companies have also officially informed about their readiness for a new trading system.
However, in the short term, experts assess that the impact of the KRX system on the market is not much.
According to the analysis of experts from HSC Securities Company, the above assessment comes from the fact that new functions such as T+0 transactions, fake sales, or raising trading limits will not be implemented immediately, but will be applied according to a step-by-step roadmap.
Instead, the biggest expectation from this system comes from its important role in meeting technical criteria so that Vietnam can be considered by international rating agencies for market upgrading, most recently the FTSE stock index in the assessment period in September 2025.
This is a goal that the market has pursued for many years and can create a big boost for foreign capital if realized.
Returning to the assessment of market trading trends in the new week, accumulating around the 1,200-point threshold is considered necessary to create a breakthrough foundation, but the risk is not small if the market loses the support threshold.
The trading session on May 5, 2025 is considered by experts to be an important session, expecting the market to open in green, thanks to the excitement of KRX.
If it breaks above the resistance zone of 1,240 points, the index can move towards the next resistance zone around 1,280 points. Conversely, if it fails, the support zone around 1,200 points will become a technical support.
Experts from HSC Securities Company believe that although the market is receiving some short-term support factors, investors still need to be cautious about macro risks that may have a negative impact in the coming time.
One of the factors to note is that the tariff negotiation process between the US and major partners such as the UK, Singapore, and Japan is facing a deadlock.
This situation poses a challenge for Vietnam, a country that is heavily dependent on exports and FDI inflows. If Vietnam achieves a positive trade agreement with the US, foreign investment flows will likely continue to choose Vietnam as an attractive destination in the region.
The VND/USD exchange rate is highly anchored after many times the State Bank adjusts the central exchange rate. Although the DXY (USD measurement) has decreased by more than 8% since the beginning of 2025, the VND still lost about 2%.
In the context of the Government prioritizing policies to promote economic growth, exchange rates increase to support export enterprises, but also pose risks to capital flow and confidence of international investors.
In the context of many unknowns that have not yet broken, HSC experts recommend that investors limit the use of margin trading and keep the stock ratio at a safe level, about 50 - 70% of net asset value.
Stocks with solid fundamentals, serving the domestic market such as retail, consumption, public investment... are considered a suitable choice for the current period.
