The stock market is experiencing many fluctuations in the first trading sessions of 2025. However, the trend of VN-Index still maintains a positive upward direction, with the fluctuation range gradually narrowing, supported by a series of positive information related to the macro policies of a new growth era that awaits.
Regarding the exchange rate issue, although the DXY index increased sharply, the USD/VND exchange rate is still being stabilized by the State Bank at around 25,450 VND/USD in the context of being supported by year-end remittance flows.
In the context of positive economic growth, listed companies' profits in 2024 will improve. A report recently released by MBS Research forecasts that the profits of the entire stock market in the fourth quarter of 2024 will grow by 25% compared to the same period in 2023, which is the highest quarterly profit since the second quarter of 2022.
The entire market's profit in 2024 could increase by 18% compared to 2023, marking the beginning of a period of recovery and growth. MBS Research expects positive profit growth in the fourth quarter and the whole year of 2024 to create the premise for listed enterprises in particular and the stock market in general to make a breakthrough in 2025.
Another driving force expected to become the “explosion point” of the Vietnamese stock market in 2025 is the opportunity to upgrade the market from frontier to emerging at the end of the year. Economists say that in order to be upgraded by the end of the year, which means strongly attracting international capital flows, Vietnam needs to continue to improve transparency, liquidity and legal infrastructure in the securities sector.
From the perspective of foreign investors, PYN Elite Fund assessed that the fund's net asset value (NAV) increased by 18% in 2024, higher than the growth rate of the VN-Index (up 12%), thanks to the profit growth of listed enterprises. From the perspective of this foreign fund, the long-term target of the VN-Index remains unchanged from the previous assessment, still at 2,500 points, based on strong profit growth in the next 2-3 years.
Dr. Nguyen Duy Phuong, Investment Director of DG Capital, said that as 2024 ended and 2025 began, the market plunged. The question that investors are most concerned about is what the stock market will be like in 2025, and will the VN Index have terrible plunges?
In his assessment, he believes that 2025 will be a positive year for the market. In the given scenario, the VN Index will increase from 1,400 points to 1,420 points. However, investors must still follow the rule of identifying possible risks in the positive scenario.
In terms of opportunities, if we look at 2025, the possibility of a sharp increase will be greater than the possibility of a sharp decrease. Many factors support the market such as businesses recovering very well, attractive market valuations. It is forecasted that in 2025, after being upgraded, foreign capital flows will return, combined with the domestic economy continuing to grow at around 6.5-7%, the risks will be significantly reduced.
"The positive trend will only be more certain after DXY shows signs of a stronger decline and world markets establish a clearer short-term recovery trend, in the context of VN-Index valuation becoming increasingly attractive. At the same time, the important support zone at 1,240 points is the threshold that investors need to pay attention to, especially in the scenario where the market continues to correct," Dr. Phuong stated his opinion.
