Ahead of the September 2 holiday, cautious sentiment remained. The VN-Index ended the last week of August with a slight decrease after two weeks of strong increases.
However, looking back at the stock market over the past 8 months, the market's medium-term uptrend has not been broken, and the market's large increase has been maintained since the beginning of the year.
Investor confidence has returned. And experts all agree that the market has returned to the 1,290 point mark, with many opportunities to reach the 1,300 point mark, surpassing it in the first week of September.
One of the most interesting news for investors at the moment is that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) has sent out the message that "it is time to lower interest rates" and expects inflation to fall to 2%.
Obviously, this is positive news, supporting the global stock market. In the US, the Dow Jones index hit a new peak of over 41,200 points in the last week of August. Inflation concerns have passed. The Fed is likely to cut interest rates by 0.25 - 0.5% at its September meeting. Investor confidence has returned.
Domestically, the USD/VND exchange rate has cooled down significantly compared to the peak in mid-July when the Fed almost certainly began the process of lowering interest rates at its September policy meeting. This will create room for the State Bank not to need to raise the operating interest rate to respond to exchange rate pressure in the remaining months of 2024, helping to maintain stable domestic interest rates.
As of August 30, 2024, the VN-Index is currently trading at a P/E of 13.91 times, about 4.5% lower than the 5-year average. With the macroeconomic and domestic situation gradually becoming more positive, the profits of listed companies continue to recover.
Large-cap stocks have also had a good rebound since the market bottomed out at the 1,200-1,220 point range. Large-cap stocks in growth sectors such as telecommunications technology or leading stocks in utilities, banking , securities, retail, and consumer goods have made impressive recoveries.
If this group does not increase in price, it is difficult to say that the market will soon return to the old peak and surpass it.
With such supporting factors, Dr. Nguyen Duy Phuong, Investment Director of DG Capital, commented that the first weeks of September will likely be weeks of increasing points; the index will have higher points in the coming time when the main trend of the market is still increasing prices.
The 1,300 point threshold is still the closest target. If this important threshold is surpassed, the market's uptrend will become even more positive.
"The key is the market liquidity story . Low liquidity will likely recur after the holiday. This situation may last into September, and it is not impossible that a downward trend will occur because the difficulty in short-term surfing activities in the past will weaken the short-term cash flow into the market," said Dr. Phuong.
Many experts also expressed the opinion that the stock market entering an uptrend phase, surpassing short-term peaks, is only a matter of time.
The industry groups that attract investors' attention are not only large stocks, leading stocks, and basic industry groups, but also special stocks in the fields of finance - banking, chemicals, steel, technology, shipping, and oil and gas.
