The mobilization race is still hot
Entering September, deposit interest rates at many banks are still maintained at a high level, especially from terms of 6 months or more.
Lao Dong's survey on September 7 shows that for the 3-month term, a series of banks are listing a rate of 4.75%/year. For the 6-month term, the level of differentiation is stronger, commonly around 6-7%/year. Sacombank applies a rate of 7.2%/year, BAC A BANK 7.05%/year, while VCBNeo, LPBank and MBV are all at 7%/year.
For the 12-month term, many banks pay from 7%/year or more. Sacombank is at 7.5%/year, LPBank and SaigonBank are at 7.2%/year, BAC A BANK 7.1%/year; VCBNeo, MBV, PGBank and VIB are all listed at 7%/year. For the 24-month term, the highest level in the common interest rate group surveyed is up to 7.8%/year.
The market also has actual interest rates above 8-9%/year, but most are associated with the interest rate plus program and specific conditions, not reflecting the general level. For example, Cake by VPBank currently has a maximum 2%/year plus program in September; while the base interest rate schedule announced earlier was 7.2%/year for a 6-month term and 7.4%/year for a 12--24 month term.
This development shows that the competitive pressure of capital sources between banks is still present. But from another perspective, the liquidity condition of the system has changed.
Reporting at the regular Government meeting in August, the short-term liquidity of the banking system improved. As of August 22, capital mobilization in VND increased by 8.77% compared to the beginning of the year, higher than the 8.38% increase in outstanding credit in VND.
Talking to Lao Dong, MSc Ngo Anh Nguyet - Lecturer at the Institute of Banking Science Research, Banking Academy - said: "The current deposit interest rate level reflects the need to consolidate capital sources, especially capital sources with longer terms, more is a sign of short-term liquidity tension throughout the system.
According to Ms. Nguyet, mobilization competition is therefore more concentrated in terms of 6 months or more.
Where will the year-end interest rate go?
The improvement in liquidity is adding a new variable to the interest rate level forecast for the remaining months of the year.
In the strategy report for the second half of 2026, SSI Research believes that domestic interest rates have experienced a sharp increase since the fourth quarter of 2025 and are expected to peak around mid-2026. According to the analysis unit, interest rates may remain high longer due to structural factors of capital sources.
In the scenario for the second half of the year, SSI Research forecasts that deposit interest rates will remain flat and can only cool down at the end of the year if public investment disbursement helps improve system liquidity. When budget capital is disbursed, cash flow passes through contractors, suppliers, and employees and then returns to the banking system in the form of deposits, which can supplement capital for credit institutions.
The banking industry update report on August 14 of DSC Securities also leans towards a less tense scenario in the second half of the year. DSC believes that the interest rate environment may slightly decrease or at least move sideways thanks to directives and liquidity support policies from the State Bank. Further, the trend also depends on the FED's interest rate policy, trade deficit developments and FDI capital flows.
The room for sharp interest rate reductions, however, is not really wide. According to the Statistics Office, the CPI in August increased by 0.47% compared to the previous month and increased by 4.89% compared to the same period in 2025. On average, in 8 months of 2026, the CPI increased by 4.45%, while core inflation increased by 4.24%.
The trade balance also creates an additional variable for exchange rate management.
In the first 8 months of 2026, Vietnam had a trade deficit of 20.46 billion USD, while in the same period last year it had a trade surplus of 14.02 billion USD.
The year-end interest rate problem is affected in both directions. Improved liquidity, capital mobilization increases faster than credit, helping to reduce pressure to increase interest rates. However, year-end capital demand, high mobilization level, and inflation and exchange rate pressure still limit the room for management.
Forecasts show that interest rates may enter a more stable phase, but the level and timing of adjustment depend on the ability to maintain liquidity of the system.
