Although the ongoing war has created a large level of uncertainty in the precious metals market, commodity experts at the World Bank (WB) believe that gold and silver prices are likely to be limited around the current zone until the end of 2026.
Ignoring the volatile period at the beginning of the year, the WB in its April Commodity Market Outlook report said that gold prices ended the first quarter with an increase of 17% compared to the fourth quarter of the previous year.
Meanwhile, silver prices increased by 55% in the first three months of the year compared to the last quarter of 2025. Experts also noted that the overall precious metal price index increased by 84% compared to the same period in the first quarter of the previous year.
According to analysts, the recent correction of gold and silver is likely to reflect a partial reversal of the speculative wave that has dominated the precious metals market in recent times.
The upward momentum of gold and silver has slowed in recent months as instability in the Middle East continues to push energy prices up, increasing concerns about inflation and raising expectations of interest rate hikes. However, the World Bank still expects precious metal prices to continue to have another year of positive growth.
In the updated forecast, the organization believes that the average gold price this year will be around 4,700 USD/ounce, up 37% compared to last year. However, the price is forecast to decrease by about 7% by 2027.
For silver, the trend is assessed similarly. The WB forecasts that the average silver price this year will reach about 70 USD/ounce, up 76% compared to the previous year, but may decrease by 7% in the following year.
“Because precious metal prices are sensitive to changes in global risk sentiment, speculative demand and macroeconomic conditions, the outlook still faces significant uncertainty. In general, risks for the underlying scenario still lean towards increase. Escalating global trade tensions or fluctuations in the financial market may trigger safe-haven capital flows into gold and silver, pushing prices above current forecasts,” experts said.
The WB still maintains a cautious stance on gold and silver in 2026, similar to the report released in October.
In the opposite direction, the biggest risk comes from high inflation due to the sharp increase in energy and commodity prices.
This will increase the opportunity cost of holding precious metals – which are non-performing assets. In addition, cooling geopolitical tensions could reduce safe-haven demand, while slowing down central bank purchases after years of strong accumulation could also lose an important source of price support," the report said.
For silver, experts warn that this metal may face greater risks if economic growth slows down, thereby weakening industrial demand.
Unexpected price drops may occur, especially if the speculative wave from the beginning of 2025 reverses strongly due to profit-taking and portfolio restructuring," analysts emphasized.
From a broader perspective, the WB believes that the war involving Iran has significantly changed the global commodity market. In a previous October report, the organization predicted commodity prices would fall by 7%.
However, currently, commodity prices are expected to increase by an average of 16%, marking the first year of rebound since 2022.
The WB said that the commodity market in general is still strongly dominated by the energy group.
With oil and natural gas prices rising sharply due to supply shortages, average energy prices are forecast to increase by 24% in 2026. At the same time, supply shocks caused by war are spreading, affecting many types of goods and industrial inputs. Fertilizer prices are forecast to increase sharply due to export disruptions and increased production costs, thereby putting pressure on food and metal prices. Basic metal and precious metal prices can both reach record highs in the context of strong fluctuations," the report stated.
The WB also warned that the upward momentum of commodity prices could push global inflationary pressure to its highest level in four years.
