The stock market is going through a period of maintaining liquidity at a low level and getting weaker recently, showing the caution of investors in the information space.
Strong market fluctuations continued in today's trading session, October 3, strengthening the reference, but were also quickly pushed back below the above threshold and had another momentum reduction in the final minutes thanks to reduced supply and the VIC-VRE pair standing firm.
As midcap real estate stocks were under increased supply pressure, VIC stocks' highs decline caused the red color to spread and at one point the VN-Index broke through the 1,640 point mark.
At the end of the session on October 3, the VN-Index decreased by 6.89 points to 1,645.82 points. Liquidity is at a low level, the value of matched orders on HoSE reached VND23,100 billion.
In the context of the general market continuing to decline, foreign investors have net withdrawn more than VND 1,300 billion, focusing on bank stocks such as STB, CTG, SHB.
The net selling of foreign investors can be explained as the restructuring of the portfolios of frontier market funds before Vietnam is upgraded, this is a negative sign. As of September 2025, the net selling value has reached 3.6 billion USD, surpassing the record of 2024. Therefore, the ownership ratio of foreign investors has decreased to below 16% and continues to decline.
For domestic investors, they are hesitant to wait for official information and macro variables. The answer to whether or not to upgrade is still unanswered, although most people have commented optimistically on the review period in October. Instead, analysts have two scenarios. One was upgraded on the announcement date of October 8 (local time), the other was upgraded in March of the following year.
Many investors also believe that the market is entering a "sensitive" phase because many other important news, including business results reports are gradually "leaking" with the common name "rumor".
For experts, the current trading level around 1,650 - 1,700 points does not show all the economic growth potential, but only reflects the business results of enterprises. Thanks to the effect of pushing goods before the new tax rate, the profits of many businesses have recently exceeded expectations.
In the case of the base scenario, VN-Index at 1,700 - 1,750 points is reasonable. The recent decline in the index is normal, because investors are cautious in the face of many news such as Q3 GDP, macro data and especially market upgrades. This is the period of accumulation, consolidating the price base before entering a new uptrend.
If a positive scenario occurs, it is possible to expect a stronger increase in the next 6 months. With a valuation of about 1 time the standard deviation and the current profit increase, the appropriate score is about 2,000 - 2,100 points.
