The VN-Index recovered slightly in the session on January 15 with the breadth leaning heavily towards the gainers. The dominant active selling situation has somewhat cooled down when there was a demand force pushing up prices in a wide range in some industry groups and the buyers showed signs of trying to control trading activities.
However, cash flow is still quite cautious in the large-cap group, so the tug-of-war situation is likely not to end soon.
Many securities companies believe that 2025 will continue to be a challenging year for stock investors due to many variables, requiring more caution and flexibility in transactions.
Factors such as interest rates, trade policies, and geopolitical situations will be the main drivers of market developments.
Stories such as upgrading the market from frontier to emerging (expected in September 2025), active public investment disbursement, or the recovery of the real estate market... will still be the main topics in 2025.
However, these are also stories that investors have "preliminarily" expected in 2024, but the VN-Index has not yet conquered the 1,300-point threshold. Therefore, investors should not be too optimistic.
UP Securities Company commented that the fact that trading volume has continuously decreased below the 20-session average shows that most of the cash flow is staying out of the market, reflecting investors' cautious psychology and waiting in the face of uncertain factors.
It is forecasted that weak cash flow and pressure from foreign investors will be factors hindering the market's recovery in the short term.
VN-Index may continue to fluctuate around the 1,240 point threshold. If liquidity does not improve and selling pressure increases, the index is likely to fall to a lower support level.
Sharing the same view, Vietnam Construction Securities Company (CSI) assessed that the "disappearing" liquidity, combined with the adjustment within a not-too-large amplitude, is showing the caution and somewhat boredom of investors, so it is highly likely that the adjustment will continue in the coming sessions.
In fact, VN-Index has retreated close to the new support level of 1,230 points. CSI recommends that investors should be cautious and patient, waiting for VN-Index to test the support level and see positive signals from liquidity to return to a new buying position.
Analysts still believe that the short-term trend of VN-Index is to decline below the resistance zone of 1,245-1,255 points, the highest level in 2023. The short-term trend will only improve when it surpasses this resistance again.
Strong support zone 1,200-1,220 points, this is the growth trend line connecting the bottom price zones of November 2022 and November 2023 to present.
Meanwhile, VN30 has an important resistance zone around 1,300 points, the average level of 200 sessions. VN30 will only improve its trend when it surpasses this price zone with positive sudden liquidity.
Experts from Asean Securities Company commented that the domestic stock market will still follow the main fluctuations, but there will be a recovery in the upcoming sessions when negative sentiment about the instability of macro factors, as well as expectations about inflationary pressure on Mr. Trump's policies after taking office have been reflected in the fluctuations of the markets recently.
At the same time, these uncertainties have entered their final stages. Investors can consider continuing to disburse in part with large stocks with positive fundamentals and business prospects, readying cash to establish a solid position when market liquidity is exhausted and valuations are very attractive.
