Lunar New Year is always considered the peak consumer season of the year, when shopping demand skyrockets in most sectors, from food, beverages, fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) to electronics and fashion. This momentum not only helps consumer businesses improve their revenue but also promotes the growth of retail stocks on the stock market.
According to experts, consumer stocks that are likely to benefit greatly from the strong spending trend during Tet include MWG (Mobile World), FRT (FPT Retail), PNJ (Phu Nhuan Jewelry), SAB (Sabeco), and MSN (Masan Group). These businesses all own extensive supply chains and distribution channels, capable of taking full advantage of the opportunity from the strong increase in purchasing power during this period.
In addition, the retail market is also supported by a series of consumer stimulus policies from the Government and promotional programs from businesses. According to data from the General Statistics Office, total retail sales of goods and consumer service revenue in the fourth quarter of 2024 increased by 9.3% over the same period last year, the highest increase in the four quarters of 2024.
Policies to stabilize prices and reduce VAT also help reduce the financial burden on consumers, boosting purchasing power in the market. At the same time, the Ministry of Finance is considering abolishing the VAT exemption for low-value imports (under VND1 million) via express delivery. These policies not only encourage domestic consumption but also limit the influx of cheap products from abroad into Vietnam.
With high consumer demand during Tet, consumer stocks, especially retail, are expected to continue to be the focus of the stock market. However, investment decisions need to be carefully considered, in the context of the market and the long-term prospects of the business.
Mr. Nguyen Viet Duc, Director of Digital Business, VPBank Securities Joint Stock Company (VPBankS), commented: "Retail stocks will recover due to increased demand, better consumer spending and the general recovery of the economy."
Along with the factors leading to retail industry growth, the main trend of Vietnamese consumers in 2025 is forecasted to prioritize essential goods, healthcare products, increase investment in sustainable, environmentally friendly products, and pay special attention to reputable brands.
However, experts also warn that not all consumer stocks will grow as strongly as expected. Businesses with weak financial foundations, limited distribution channels or high operating costs may not be able to take advantage of this peak season. In addition, pressure from high interest rates and fierce competition in the retail industry are also risks that investors need to carefully consider.
