The last trading session of August witnessed a slight fluctuation in the market, especially in the last minutes of the afternoon session, when the VN-Index took a break and luck was pulled up from the red, closing in green.
At the end of the trading session, the VN-Index increased by 1.35 points (+0.08%), to 1,682.21 points. The total trading volume reached more than 1.52 billion units, worth VND 44,970.5 billion.
Contrary to the forecast of many experts on the possibility of adjusting down after a series of hot increases, with a score at the end of August 2025, the VN-Index had only four sessions of decline in the month, the rest increased and recorded a total increase of approximately 180 points, equivalent to +11.96%.
Liquidity recorded a record high month in the market. The market's increase was mainly supported by three major industry groups: banking increased by nearly 19%, securities companies increased by 21% and real estate increased by more than 14%.
Regarding foreign transactions, this group continued to net sell more than VND 3,623 billion on the HOSE in the last trading session of August. Thus, the net selling momentum of foreign investors is continuing and increasing in August when the VN-Index was at 1,600 points. ETFs have mostly been withdrawn and the net selling trend is still happening in most Asian stock markets.
Experts say that there are no clear signs of foreign capital flows taking the lead in upgrading the market, but there is more excitement and expectation from domestic capital flows. Although foreign investors have returned to net selling strongly, the trading proportion of foreign investors currently accounts for only about 6 - 8%, the net buying or selling actions of this group no longer have a big impact on the market, but mainly affect psychology.
Commenting on market trends, Mr. Dao Hong Duong - Director of Industry and Stock Analysis, VPBank Securities Company (VPBankS) said that there is still basis to expect the market to reach new peaks in the coming time.
According to VPBankS experts, in the short term, some notable factors will affect investor psychology and market trends, such as exchange rate developments, especially after the State Bank intervened by selling the 180-day term at the 26,550 VND/USD barrier. In addition, the market is also expecting the results of FTSE Russell's market upgrade review in late September and early October.
An extremely important factor is whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at its meeting on September 17. Currently, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates is forecast by international experts to be about 75%, a very high level for the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates.
The Fed's interest rate cut of 0.25% will have a double impact on the market sentiment in Vietnam. Firstly, investors will expect more open domestic monetary policy space in the last 6 months of the year, creating conditions to promote growth. Second, the exchange rate is likely to be stopped at VND 26,550/USD, eliminating concerns about devaluation from now until the end of the year. These two factors can trigger a positive cash flow return to the market. However, if the Fed does not cut interest rates, the trend will still be stable. portfolio diversification is a necessary strategy.
In terms of cash flow, according to Mr. Dao Hong Duong, banks are the group with a very strong cash flow and are leading the recent trend and will continue to attract cash flow. In addition, with the development of a series of national projects worth thousands of billions of VND that have been started, the group of stocks related to public investment, construction, and infrastructure will benefit in the coming time.
Currently, when the market is starting to stagnate in the groups that have increased rapidly, investors should rebalance their portfolios. However, it is not necessary to abandon trending transactions, but only need to allocate more appropriately. Factors to consider when making decisions include a good industry business environment; profit growth rate after tax in 2025 above 10%; benefits if the market is upgraded; fiscal and monetary policies, liquidity...", Mr. Duong expressed his opinion.
