After a series of increases of more than 600 points in the past 4 months, the VN-Index is touching the historical 1,700 point mark. From the beginning of the third quarter of 2025, the average liquidity of the market will reach about 42,000 billion VND/session, an increase of more than 100% compared to the first half of the year, reflecting the released cash flow, after the information about countervailing taxes against the US became clearer.
However, contrary to the active domestic capital flow, foreign investors' transactions have returned to the net selling trend, with the record largest number ever. In August 2025, foreign investors net sold more than 862 million units, with a total net selling value of more than VND 42,718 billion.
Although foreign investors have tended to withdraw net since the beginning of last month, Vietnamese stocks are still supported by capital flows from domestic institutional and individual investors. The factor of loosening Vietnam's monetary policy in the current period is still the main support for cash flow into the market, and this factor will have a greater influence than information on business results in the third quarter or impacts on the global political macro.
With September, with the expectation that the Fed will lower interest rates and Vietnam will start to further promote public investment projects (such as railway projects, metro, etc.) - it will be a relatively vibrant month, not necessarily subject to much selling pressure before the holidays as seen throughout the past week.
The market is placing great confidence in the possibility of upgrading the market from frontier to emerging. Vietnam is likely to be upgraded by FTSE Russell in the September review. This event can create large-scale foreign capital flows, both improving liquidity and raising valuations, but can also cause short-term market fluctuations when funds restructure their portfolios.
The market is showing a clear differentiation trend. The recent increase has focused on the group of large-cap banks and real estate. Meanwhile, the profit expectation for the whole year of 2025 of many businesses is still at 15-22%, creating room for some industry groups to take a leading role. This is the basis for consolidating the medium- and long-term trend, even when a correction period appears in the short term.
With both domestic and international macro factors moving positively, while the stock market is still attracting strong cash flow participation with an average trading value per session regularly maintained above VND45,000 billion, the VN-Index in September is expected to continue to maintain an upward trend and fluctuate within the range of 1,650 - 1,780 points.
However, it is also necessary to observe the market sentiment that is recording signs of increasing vigilance. When the VN-Index approaches the resistance zone of 1,700 points, profit-taking pressure and ETF review activities will resonate, causing the index to fluctuate strongly. The near support zone is around 1,625 points, considered an important level to maintain the uptrend. In this context, it is necessary to prioritize selective disbursement and limit the use of high leverage.
The domestic macro foundation is still relatively sustainable, but global risks cannot be ignored. GDP growth remains stable, public investment disburses faster, while the institutional reform environment continues to strengthen confidence. However, fluctuations from global interest rate policies, trade and international geopolitics can still create a surprising shock for market sentiment.
Based on identifying monetary easing as the biggest support for the market, Dr. Nguyen Duy Phuong, Director of Strategic Investment DG Capital, said that opportunities from now until the end of the year will not be spread out but will focus on stocks that benefit from policies such as banks, securities, and real estate.
"In the more cautious scenario when the market enters the adjustment stage, which only happens when the loose monetary policy is difficult to maintain, I am leaning towards choosing groups of stocks that are defensive or have not increased in the recent past such as: oil and gas, technology, energy," Dr. Phuong stated his opinion.
