After a strong fluctuation around the historical peak and losing the 1,900 point mark, the stock market continued to struggle and adjust, in the context that cash flow has not shown clear signs of returning.
Selling pressure in the Vingroup stock group no longer increased as strongly as in the previous period, while bottom-fishing demand returned, contributing to supporting the index. However, observing the market developments in recent sessions, it can be seen that although the index is anchored at a high level thanks to the rotational support of some large-cap stocks, internal developments show a widespread weakening state.
Most industry groups decreased, of which oil and gas, technology, insurance and chemicals are under the strongest pressure. Banking, securities and real estate have also gradually weakened recently, creating pressure on the index.
Liquidity continued to decline sharply, with the average value on HOSE only around VND 16,500 billion/session - the lowest level in many months, reflecting a cautious and lack of motivation to lead.
Dr. Nguyen Duy Phuong, Investment Block Director of DG Capital, said that recently the VN-Index and market quality are increasingly far apart. Investors should only see scores as a reference channel. The key factor to monitor at this time is cash flow and liquidity. Is there a return of large cash flow, as shown through sessions with liquidity over 20 trillion VND and a spreading increase range.
Regarding the signals to be monitored, Dr. Phuong believes that domestic macroeconomic factors will play an equally important role in technical developments. Investors should pay attention to interest rate trends, if the deposit and lending interest rate levels continue to be maintained at a high level, cash flow will be difficult to flow strongly into stocks. Conversely, if there are support policies from management agencies, such as operating interest rate reductions or solutions to remove difficulties for businesses, the market will have a basis to form a more sustainable recovery momentum.
Regarding market prospects, experts from MBS Securities Company believe that adjustment pressure in both indices and liquidity in the last 2 weeks of May may continue to occur in the first 2 weeks of June. This development takes place in the context of reduced liquidity and strong net selling by foreign investors.
MBS also noted the trend of interest rate hikes taking place in Asian markets, in which Japan is likely to raise interest rates right in June 2026 to support the Yen, despite domestic political barriers.
On that basis, VN-Index may still have to test the support zone of 1,800 points in the context of low liquidity. However, the market is forecast to be more positive in the last 2 weeks of June when the macroeconomic picture of the first 6 months of the year and the semi-annual financial reporting season gradually emerge.
In the context of strongly differentiated cash flow and traditional pillars such as banks and real estate not yet regaining their leading role, according to experts' observations, the current market can be temporarily divided into three large stock groups that are attracting the attention of cash flow.
The first is the group of stocks benefiting from Resolution 68 - related to private economic development and institutional reform.
The second is the group of stocks associated with Resolution 79 - focusing on major policies on public investment, infrastructure and regional development.
Third is the group of stocks with their own story, associated with industry cycles, breakthrough business results or factors of divestment, M&A.
