The stock market has just experienced its 3rd consecutive week of decline, especially after a sharp decline on March 21, the VN-Index broke the 1,650 point mark and touched the 200-day MA support line (equivalent to 1,647 points).
In which, the uncertain international market factor, causing concerns about inflation to return, activated the general defensive psychology of investors, leading to a fairly sharp decrease in market liquidity last week.
Entering the trading session of the new week on March 23, the stock market faced strong selling pressure on a large scale right from the morning session with more than 300 codes trading below the reference price.
Strong selling pressure in the afternoon session caused VN-Index to quickly fall below the psychological support level. At the end of today's session, VN-Index closed at 1,591 points, losing more than 56 points compared to the reference level. This is the third consecutive declining session with a total adjustment of up to 123 points.
Liquidity on HOSE today reached 28,900 billion VND, of which more than 16,000 billion VND came from a large-cap basket. The market has 4 codes with a trading value of trillions of VND, including MWG, SSI, SHB and HPG. Cash flow focused on codes that are having a strong correction, as shown by the fact that the top 20 codes in the liquidity ranking today all closed in red.
Foreign investors extended the net selling streak to the 8th consecutive session. The total net withdrawal value in today's session reached more than 8,300 billion VND. Foreign investors focused on selling HDB, NVL, MWG and KBC stocks.
Red color covered many industry groups in the first session of the week. HOSE had 317 declining codes, of which 38 codes hit the floor. Many large-cap stocks such as MWG, GVR, VIC and DGC all lost their amplitude.
By industry, securities are under the strongest selling pressure as most component stocks decreased. Some pillar codes such as HCM, VND, VCI closed at floor prices, while SSI and VIX lost 5.5% and 5.8% respectively.
Next is the banking industry with many leading stocks in this industry such as VCB, BID, CTG, VPB, HDB trading below the reference price with a common decrease of more than 2%. STB is under the strongest selling pressure, leading to a 5.4% decrease in market price.
Oil and gas stocks flourished when they first opened for trading, but in the afternoon session, they reversed to decrease points due to strong selling pressure. BSR shares changed from increasing to falling to the floor price at 26,100 VND. PLX and GAS lost 4.2% and 1.8% respectively.
After a prolonged decline, the stock market is not only gradually losing important support levels but also being surrounded by cautious sentiment, weak liquidity and pressure from a series of external variables.
Notably, since the Middle East conflict, VN-Index has decreased by more than 12.5% in just 3 weeks and decreased by 300 points since its peak. The market's main index is also heading towards its strongest monthly decline since COVID-19 (April 2020).
In a newly updated report, MB Securities Company (MBS) believes that a fairly strong decrease is threatening the long-term upward trend of VN-Index when approaching the MA200 daily support level (equivalent to 1,650 points), a technical indicator often observed by investors.
In the base scenario, MBS's analysis department believes that the market may adjust for another phase to test selling pressure when the technical signal is confirmed (VN-Index loses MA200).
The support zone for the correction scenario is in the 1,580 - 1,600 point area. If liquidity decreases or is low in this support zone test scenario, it will be a positive signal to expect the market to have a technical recovery. A bad scenario occurs when VN-Index loses the upper support zone," the report stated.
Kafi Securities Company's analysts also gave the view that the market is likely to continue to struggle in the context of geopolitical risks and inflationary pressure still existing, low liquidity and differentiated cash flow. Selling pressure still appears in the high price zone, making the short-term trend not really stable.
In the short term, VN-Index may continue to accumulate, retest supply and demand. The 1,600 - 1,650 point zone (AROUND MA200) is an important support zone, while 1,270 points is a resistance level to be overcome to improve the trend and expand the recovery momentum.
