The stock market had another week of quite strong decline when under general pressure due to unpredictable developments in the Middle East. Cash flow showed signs of shifting when seeking T+ opportunities in small stocks, while continuing to sell at low prices many codes in the oil and gas and chemical groups.
At the end of the trading week, the VN-Index decreased by 48.43 points (-2.85%), to 1,647.81 points. Thus, VN-Index has had a total of three consecutive weeks of decline, losing more than 230 points.
Matched order liquidity in the past week decreased significantly when it was 27% lower than the previous week. Accordingly, the average weekly trading volume on the HOSE floor reached 891 million shares/session, down nearly 25% compared to the previous week, the average trading value reached 26,130 billion VND/session, down nearly 22%.
The stock market is currently operating in a relatively complex psychological state. Unpredictable developments from the world geopolitical situation are still major barriers, causing cash flow to maintain caution and priority defense.
That is the reason why the market is falling into a state of clear liquidity decline, reflecting the high cautious sentiment of investors after a strong correction.
Experts believe that a large part of the cash flow is "stuck" in the high price zone, making trading activities sluggish as investors tend to wait for recovery waves to restructure their portfolios instead of actively disbursing new capital.
In the context of market decline, bottom-fishing demand often appears but at a limited and exploratory level, not strong enough to fully absorb selling pressure. At the same time, securities companies tightening margin or investors actively lowering leverage also contributes to weakening liquidity, when borrowing cash flow is narrowed and the psychology of prioritizing defense increases.
The question that investors are currently concerned about is whether the market is entering a deeper decline or a balance zone will appear next week?
Determining whether the market has really bottomed out at the present time is a challenging problem. Unexpected information flows arising during the weekend holiday are often unpredictable variables, capable of completely changing the psychological landscape of investors right at the beginning of the new week.
However, from a technical perspective, many experts predict that after a deep and decisive decline, the market tends to have technical recovery waves due to reduced sell pressure and increased bottom-fishing demand.
The most anticipated catalyst for the market in the current context, although an old story but a turning point, is the new information about the market upgrade roadmap expected to be announced in early April.
This is considered a particularly important catalyst for foreign capital flows and index investment funds (ETFs). If the signals from rating organizations such as FTSE Russell diễn biến thuận lợi, we can completely expect a wave of smart speculative capital to return to the market.
Looking at the opportunities in the current period, the stock groups with the ability to attract cash flow in the short term are still rated highest, which is the banking industry group. After the recent adjustment, the valuation of this group is returning to the attractive zone, opening up accumulation opportunities for medium and long-term goals.
In addition, in the context that external factors are still volatile, public investment can be seen as a tool for the Government to proactively implement early to stimulate the economy. This is not only a solution to promote GDP growth but also a direct driving force for the group of stocks in the construction, infrastructure and basic materials industries.
Conversely, for the energy stock group, although benefiting from the strong fluctuations of world oil prices, investors need to maintain certain caution. Currently, this group has a relatively high valuation and is in a technical correction phase, requiring patience to find a safer disbursement point.
