The trading week from June 22 - June 26 closed with quite positive developments in terms of points when VN-Index continued to maintain its upward momentum and approached the important resistance zone around 1,870 - 1,890 points. However, if deeper into the market structure, the current picture is not really as strong as what the index is reflecting.
As of June 26, VN-Index increased by about 34 points compared to the beginning of the month. However, most of this increase came from the Vingroup stock group, including VIC, VHM, VRE and VPL. According to statistics, this stock group alone contributed nearly 50 points to the index.
That means that if the impact of the Vingroup group is eliminated, the rest of the market will almost go sideways, even slightly decrease in June. This is a signal that differentiation is taking place very strongly. The index is increasing, but most investors do not really feel the corresponding investment efficiency in their portfolios.
One of the factors that makes investors cautious about the current trend is that cash flow has not shown signs of strong return.In June, foreign investors maintained a strong net selling position with a value of more than 13,000 billion VND.Prolonged capital withdrawal pressure shows that international cash flow has not really appreciated the prospects of frontier and emerging markets in the context that the global interest rate environment is still unstable.
Domestically, the deposit interest rate level is still maintained at a relatively high level.When depositing savings still brings attractive profits with low risk, cash flow tends to be more cautious with the stock market.This explains why market liquidity remains low even though the index has recovered significantly from the bottom.
A positive signal is that market breadth is gradually improving in the short term.Currently, the number of stocks trading on the MA20 line is about 36.3%, a significant increase compared to the beginning of the month.This shows that more and more stocks are starting to recover after a long period of decline.
Analysts from DSC Securities Company believe that the recovery is taking place, but not enough to confirm a new upward price market. However, experts expect this short-term recovery to continue to be maintained in the first half of July.
Technically, after successfully bottoming out around the 1,800 point zone, VN-Index is currently under pressure in the 1,870 point zone.This is a relatively strong resistance zone and will determine the short-term trend of the market.If the index can successfully surpass the 1,894 point zone this week, the next target will be around the 1,950 point zone.Conversely, if it cannot break out of the current resistance zone, VN-Index may return to test the 1,780 point support zone, similar to the developments that occurred at the end of February 2026.
A noteworthy point according to experts at DSC Securities Company is that the current state of the market is not an ideal environment for short-term trading activities. Although VN-Index is still likely to move towards the 1,950 point zone, trading is becoming much more difficult because cash flow is concentrated in certain stock groups.
According to Kafi Securities Company's assessment, the market is still in a recovery phase but the trend has not really spread widely. The current bottleneck is still cautious demand, causing cash flow to mainly rotate between some leading stock groups, instead of forming a large enough consensus to create a sustainable upward trend.
VN-Index is expected to continue to fluctuate in the range of 1,850 - 1,900 points in the next few sessions before there is a more specific signal. Close support is the range of 1,850 points (MA50) and the gap range around 1,810 points will be a stronger support area if adjustment pressure increases.
In general, the recovery trend is still maintained, but to form a sustainable upward momentum, the market will need more accumulation time, improved cash flow as well as consensus from many leading industry groups, instead of relying on some large-cap stocks.
