The stock market in the past week recovered in the first sessions of the week thanks to the pulling force from the pillar stock group, led by the Vingroup group when VIC surpassed its historical peak and became the code contributing the most gains to the VN-Index.
However, the upward momentum quickly weakened when large-cap groups simultaneously adjusted in the last two sessions of the week, causing the market to return to a state of stalemate. However, at the end of the trading week, VN-Index still increased by 47.38 points, equivalent to an increase of 2.6% to 1,871.91 points.
The positive point is that VN-Index has maintained its recovery momentum for two consecutive weeks and is approaching the old peak, however, the quality of the increase is not really convincing when liquidity is still low, market breadth is poor and cash flow is mainly concentrated in some large-cap stocks.
In the past week, there have been two consecutive sessions with liquidity below the 1 billion USD threshold. Looking at the breadth of the market, the number of declining stocks still overwhelms the number of increasing stocks - that is, the index is increasing but the internal weakness below is still weak, true to the image of "green shell, red heart". This clearly reflects a reality: the recent recovery was mainly led by some large-cap bluechips, but there has not been widespread spread and widespread participation of cash flow on a large scale.
In addition, it is noteworthy that foreign investors continue to maintain a net selling trend lasting for many weeks, creating pressure on general developments. This development also reflects the cautious sentiment of investors in the international market when expecting the Fed to continue to maintain a tough monetary policy. The strengthening USD is putting pressure on many risky assets such as gold, cryptocurrencies and stocks.
In the short term, the stock market still does not have much new supporting information and is likely to wait for the Q2/2026 business results announcement season. The important factor to observe is not only the increase in the index but also the improvement in liquidity.
The resistance zone of 1,885-1,900 is still a key wall. For the market to be able to overcome sustainably, the mandatory condition is to have confirmed liquidity - ideally, the sessions need to reach over 1.2 billion USD. If the price rises but the volume is still thin, the risk of forming a fake peak is very high and that will be a "trap" for short-wave investors. Conversely, if the index adjusts to the area of 1,855-1,860 - this is the convergence zone of the MA50 line - it is an opportunity to gradually disburse. Technically, this is a quality support zone and the risk/profit ratio here is quite attractive.
Regarding the trend for next week, many experts agree that the scenario is likely still the "green shell, red heart" state, when cash flow continues to rotate to pull some pillar stocks to keep the index around the 1,850-1,890 point zone, while most of the remaining stocks trade sluggishly.
The biggest risk currently lies in the fact that the index depends on some pillar stocks, making the market easily fluctuate strongly if this group reverses direction. In addition, the adjustment of US stocks in the face of selling pressure on technology groups and concerns about inflation returning may also affect investor sentiment.
Investors who are holding stocks should restructure their portfolios, prioritizing businesses with good fundamentals and their own growth story, and at the same time consider taking partial profits on pillar stocks that have increased sharply. For investors who have not disbursed, experts believe that they should maintain a state of observation if they do not have an advantage in short-term trading, because current risks are higher than opportunities.
