VN-Index continued to maintain green color for the third consecutive session. Like many previous sessions, the increasing range was dominated by the large-cap stock group Vin (VIC, VHM). Liquidity is still a headache because of continuous decline, the matched order volume is nearly 9% lower than the 20-session average.
The differentiation in the market is still very large, the cash flow increasing points has not yet spread to many industry groups but is only concentrated in a few stock groups, while liquidity is still low.
The stock market is gradually entering the end of the second quarter and the beginning of the third quarter of 2026. Through this, investors are re-evaluating their portfolios after the first 6 months of the year, updating basic factors, business results of enterprises to have a portfolio restructuring plan and assess new investment opportunities if any.
Current signals show that the market has not yet fully converged the elements of a sustainable upward trend. First, liquidity is maintained at a low level and gradually decreases, reflecting cautious sentiment. Investors have not sold strongly but are not ready to disburse. This is a state of "exhaustion" of cash flow.
Second, cash flow is going in the wrong order. Last week, many stocks appeared that increased sharply and generated quite good short-term profits, but cash flow focused on medium and small-sized banks and mid-cap securities stocks.
Meanwhile, the banking group leading the market has not yet attracted enough cash flow. This shows that current cash flow is more short-term speculative than institutional cash flow is building a new upward trend.
Third, the macroeconomic context is less favorable than expected. The market is witnessing a rather tough stance from the US Federal Reserve (Fed). Despite keeping interest rates unchanged in the June session, the Fed is still signaling cautiousness with inflation. Expectations for interest rate cuts in 2026 have therefore weakened significantly. This is not a positive sign for risky assets globally.
Vietnam wants to maintain a low interest rate level but finds it difficult to go against the general trend. Therefore, the current monetary environment does not really support the stock market.
In the current context, securities companies mostly agree that the market may experience short-term fluctuations.
Yuanta Securities Company offers a positive scenario that the VN-Index continues to maintain above 1,860 points and continues the short-term upward momentum with the 1,900 point resistance zone being the nearest resistance.
Conversely, the index may return to a correction phase if it loses the 1,860 point zone. The short-term trend of VN-Index continues to be maintained at a neutral level. Investors should pay attention to the trend of each stock and industry group in the current period with a risk management level of 1,860 points.
Beta Securities Company recommends that investors still need to monitor market liquidity as well as the net selling trend of foreign investors in the coming time. For short-term positions, investors should still maintain cautious trading, limit chasing purchases for stocks showing signs of hot increase in the short term and adhere to discipline in using leverage.
For investors with medium and long-term vision, they can accumulate stocks of businesses with good fundamentals, positive growth prospects in the near future and benefit from the macroeconomic policy context. However, balanced portfolios should still be maintained and portfolio expansion should only be considered when market cash flow improves.
