In the last 3 sessions, VN-Index maintained its upward momentum, but according to experts' assessment, the market breadth still leaned towards decreasing points.
The reason is that cash flow has not really spread evenly. The main upward momentum comes from some stocks, while many other industry groups are still under profit-taking pressure and trading is less positive.
With weakening cash flow and the lack of leadership from pillar stock groups such as Vingroup stocks, banks..., VN-Index could not maintain its green color in today's trading session (June 25).
At the end of the session, VN-Index decreased by 14.95 points to the threshold of 1,863.07 points. On the HOSE exchange, there were 119 gainers and 177 losers. Market liquidity continued to be low when it only reached more than 16,110 billion VND. Thus, the stock market has had two consecutive sessions trading below a billion USD.
In the market adjustment session, foreign investors net sold 1,080 billion VND on the Ho Chi Minh City Stock Exchange. Among them, the stock group that was dumped the most was VHM, CTG, FPT, BSR, VIC.
By industry, oil and gas, real estate, chemicals and retail groups had the lowest performance today. Meanwhile, cash flow still turned to the tourism - entertainment, construction - materials and technology industries.
In today's trading session, Vingroup's VIC contributed more than 9 points to the overall decrease. Followed by Vinhomes' VHM with nearly 3 points. These two codes decreased by 2.4% and 1.9% respectively with high liquidity, with VHM alone leading the market in total trading value.
In the opposite direction, the adjustment of VN-Index was somewhat curbed thanks to TCB of Techcombank. This stock increased by 2.8% with the second highest liquidity in the whole market. TCB contributed nearly 1.4 points to the general index.
According to the assessment of KIS Securities Company, the VN-Index is being dominated and greatly influenced by a minority group of stocks, especially the Vingroup stock group (such as VIC, VHM).
Data shows that VIC shares alone accounted for 17.3% of the total market capitalization of the entire HOSE. This figure is even twice as large as the share ranked second in capitalization, VHM (accounting for 6.49%), 4 shares belonging to the Vingroup group have a capitalization of up to 26.4% of the total market capitalization. This leads to when two of these shares fluctuate due to any investment or speculative factors, the index will fluctuate accordingly and ignore the up/down efforts of other stocks.
Therefore, the VN-Index score at present is no longer a mirror accurately reflecting the trend and potential of the stock market. Specifically, when completely removing the group of stocks related to VIC from the calculation basket, KIS Securities Company realized that the market is trading around the bottom of March 2026 rather than trading around the historical peak.
SHS Securities Company believes that the short-term trend of VN-Index is shifting to a recovery phase with expectations of recovery to the price range around 1,900 points. This is a very strong resistance zone today. There needs to be a superior growth momentum to expect to overcome this resistance zone, the old peak. Currently, there are no forecasts that VN-Index can overcome it. With the current developments, VN-Index will accumulate in a narrow range from 1,850-1,900 points.
The market is gradually ending Q2/2026 and starting Q3/2026. Through this, investors re-evaluate the portfolio after 6 months of 2026. Update basic factors, business results of enterprises to have a portfolio restructuring plan and assess new investment opportunities if any. This is not necessarily an attractive valuation range of the market.
Investors can consider investment opportunities in leading growth enterprises. However, investment accumulation positions should only be considered when adjusting and need to be more carefully selected based on updating basic factors and business results of enterprises.
