In the past week, August 17-18, the stock market recorded sideways and sideways movements in the context of low liquidity. However, in the last session of the week, market movements had a significant improvement in terms of liquidity and points compared to previous sessions.
At the end of the week, VN-Index increased by 39.04 points (+2.26%) compared to the previous week and closed at 1,768.12 points. However, liquidity in the week decreased to the lowest level since the beginning of 2025 and 24% lower than the 20-week average.
Accumulated to the end of the trading session, the average matched order volume on the HOSE exchange reached 583 million shares/session, down more than 15% compared to the previous week, the average trading value reached 15,162 billion VND, down nearly 12%.
In the context of investor sentiment still being cautious, cash flow tends to withdraw from some large-cap stocks in the banking, real estate and financial services groups to seek opportunities in the small and medium-cap group.
Some groups that are attracting better cash flow include personal and household goods, tourism and entertainment, food and beverages, industrial services, telecommunications and oil and gas. Most of the stocks in these groups belong to the small and medium capitalization group.
The market needs more new momentum to create a boost. In particular, the period of August-September is considered a noteworthy period, when the market may receive more information about upgrades and foreign capital flows.
The information that investors are most waiting for today is that on September 21st, FTSE Russell's decision to upgrade Vietnam from a frontier market to a secondary emerging market will officially take effect. This decision will officially put Vietnam on par with China, India, Egypt, Indonesia,...
According to a recent report by Yuanta Securities Company (CTCK), Vietnamese stocks that have just been added to the FTSE GEIS index sets, are estimated to attract capital flows of about 1.5 billion USD when the entire roadmap is completed. However, this securities company also noted that the impact of upgraded cash flow needs to be viewed in two layers.
In the short term, the 150 million USD of the first phase is not large enough to create a uniform impact on the entire market, but the impact may be more pronounced in stocks with high proportion or low liquidity. Large-cap groups account for about 53% of total purchase value, of which VIC and VHM alone account for nearly 49%.
Considering the correlation between the amount of money expected to be bought and current liquidity, MCH, VIC and VHM are the three stocks with the highest initial cash flow absorption time, thereby possibly being more clearly affected by supply and demand.
In the medium term, about 1.35 billion USD remaining is expected to be disbursed in three installments by September 2027. According to Yuanta, this is the amount of capital that has the potential to create a more remarkable driving force for liquidity and foreign demand.
Yuanta Securities Company believes that investors should monitor stocks that have both a large expected buying value and a significant cash flow absorption level compared to the average trading value, instead of just looking at the total amount of money bought in the entire period to increase the proportion.
The important thing for investors at this time is not to predict whether VN-Index will increase or decrease in the next session, but to monitor whether the accumulated and circulated cash flow is strong enough to create a new price level or not. Investors should look at the market in a longer cycle, instead of just focusing on the ups and downs in the short term.
For short-term investors, it is recommended not to chase buying in uptrends. Investors can take advantage of recovery sessions to restructure their portfolios, reducing the proportion of weak stocks in terms of cash flow and trends. For new positions, investors should wait for corrections to the reasonable price range, instead of chasing after stocks that have increased sharply.
