The market experienced a rather gloomy trading week with the last two trading sessions of the week having the lowest trading volume since April 2023, as investors seemed to be greatly affected by the developments and severe consequences of Typhoon Yagi. The VN-Index had 5 sessions under pressure to correct from 1,270 points to the price range of 1,250 points.
Statistics on transactions on the HOSE floor last week showed that the VN-Index had 4 sessions of decline and only 1 session of increase on September 12. At the end of the trading week, the VN-Index decreased by 22.25 points (-1.75%) to 1,251.71 points.
After the less optimistic developments, many experts have been more cautious and a bit more negative, saying that the VN-Index may correct further, and may even fall to the support levels of 1,220 - 1,230 points.
However, many views are also more optimistic, saying that the stock market from now until the end of the year does not have many risks when the macro is relatively favorable. The major risks that the market was concerned about 2-3 months ago such as inflation and exchange rates have now decreased, the market will prepare for an increase at the end of the year, which is usually the time when domestic and foreign institutional investors accumulate for the new year investment cycle. There are major stories to expect in the coming months.
In September, the positive macro context and the removal of bottlenecks to meet the criteria for upgrading according to FTSE Russell, if there is progress, will be catalysts to help the Vietnamese stock market maintain its recovery momentum and return to an upward trend.
In the domestic market, at the end of August, the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) announced that it would adjust the credit growth limit for banks that have completed 80% of the credit growth target for 2024. This second adjustment of the credit growth limit by the SBV is showing a signal of a reversal in the FED's monetary policy and the cooling of the DXY index has reinforced the SBV's confidence in maintaining a "moderate" monetary policy environment in a supportive direction for the economy.
With the macro outlook continuing to change positively, analysts from VDSC Securities Company believe that the gradual sideways trend of VN-Index is still preserved and the 1,237 - 1,325 point range is considered a reasonable valuation range of the index after reflecting the business results of the first 6 months of 2024.
Dr. Nguyen Duy Phuong, Investment Director of DGCapital, expressed his opinion that the expectation of sustainability in the stock market is still difficult because Vietnam has passed the time of synchronization with the world market, meaning that the world market is increasing but Vietnam is not. Foreign investors have not changed their net selling status, showing that confidence has not returned, while the cash flow from domestic investors has increased sharply, but it is short-term investment cash flow and highly speculative, not much supporting the stable development of the market. Therefore, it is necessary to change the nature and structure of the market to move towards a more sustainable goal.
