The VN-Index continued to experience a week of intense trading fluctuations with a sharp decline on the first day of the week to the price range of 1,185 points due to unfavorable information and market trends from the global market. However, the overall index later recovered and surpassed the strong psychological barrier of 1,200 points.
According to the trading statistics on the HOSE exchange for the past week, the VN-Index had 3 rising sessions and 2 falling sessions. At the end of the trading week, the VN-Index decreased by 12.96 points (-1.05%) to 1,223.64 points. The trading volume on the HOSE exchange increased slightly by 6% compared to the previous week, with a total trading value of 85,351 billion dong.
Foreign investors had a week of net selling of up to 400 billion dong, with a focus on selling blue-chip stocks, particularly airline stocks VJC, accounting for over 1/4 of the total net selling value on the market.
The deep adjustments at the end of July and the beginning of August 2024, especially in the context of the global stock market's sell-off, caused the VN-Index to break the upward trend established since October 2023. From the end of July, despite Vietnam's strong macroeconomic performance, unfavorable information from around the world had a significant impact on the global stock market, Vietnam, and is expected to have a negative impact in the near future. The target of maintaining the 1,150-1,160 point range is considered a challenge for the VN-Index to maintain its long-term upward channel in the coming period.
Analysts from ACBS Securities Company believe that, excluding the possibility of a "recession" in the US economy due to recent signs of a recession, a suitable scenario for the VN-Index in the next 6 months is to continue fluctuating within the 1,150-1,300 range, in the context of Vietnam's stable macroeconomy, strong growth, and relatively attractive overall valuation.
Given the prospect of limited profit growth in the next 1-2 quarters, a broad adjustment of mid- and small-cap stocks is considered suitable. Opportunities in the second half of the year will lean towards the VN30 group (with a large proportion of banking stocks), especially in the context of the Fed's interest rate cut and the potential return of foreign investor capital to the market.
Analysts from An Bình Securities Company presented two scenarios for the VN-Index in August. Scenario 1 is the case where the riots and armed conflicts are resolved, do not escalate further, and if the VN-Index maintains the 1,166 point mark, it will form a structure of sideways accumulation.
Scenario 2, the opposite case, prioritizes the scenario of price adjustment downward in August. If the closing price of the week does not maintain the 1,166 point mark, the overall market will continue to adjust downward to the support levels of 3 in the previous report at the price range of 1,140-1,080. The adjustment phases may occur with a relatively high intensity and speed. At that time, the 12-month P/E ratio of the market is expected to decrease to a relatively attractive level of 12.6x-11.9x.
With such forecasts, experts consider risk management in the medium term to be the top priority in August. Trading stocks in technical recovery phases should be carefully considered at the support levels of the VN-Index and specific stocks, when there is specific confirmation of completing the price model. In the phase of medium-term adjustment, investors should lower their profit expectations and follow stop-loss orders.
