Stock market developments last week showed a temporary risk avoidance mentality, as cash flow became cautious in the face of global macroeconomic and geopolitical fluctuations. However, selling pressure did not spread strongly and cash flow still circulated in some industry groups, showing that supply and demand in the market are gradually balancing after a correction.
Currently, world oil prices, especially Brent oil, are returning to the zone above 100 USD/barrel due to the conflict in the Middle East and the risk of supply disruption, although IEA countries have agreed to discharge about 400 million barrels of oil from stockpiles.
At this price level, according to the assessment of some securities companies, oil is beginning to become an important macroeconomic variable for inflation in many economies.
In Vietnam, in the CPI basket, the transportation group accounts for 10%, of which the majority is gasoline and oil. If gasoline prices remain around 25,000 VND/liter for a long time, the CPI may immediately reflect an increase of about 0.5%. After that, secondary impacts will spread to many other commodity groups (transportation, food prices...) after a few months, with an indirect increase of about 0.2-0.4%.
As a result, the CPI - which is currently at 3.35% - may approach the Government's control threshold of 4.5%. This means that the room for monetary policy easing will become more limited. This is also one of the reasons why the stock market fluctuated strongly last week.
However, oil prices are just one of many factors affecting the Vietnamese stock market. In the near future, the stock market still has positive information waiting, such as the Vietnamese stock market receiving the results of reviewing criteria according to the classification of secondary emerging markets from FTSE; the shareholders' meeting season, 2026 business plan and preliminary Q1/2026 results announced also help cash flow reposition the growth story.
Mr. Huynh Anh Huy, CFA - Director of Industry Analysis, Kafi Securities Company, said that to bottom out and increase again, the market needs to go through three stages.
The bottom-fishing process begins when selling pressure gradually runs out at the 1,650 - 1,680 point support zone. The most important signal at this stage is the narrowing of the decrease amplitude (short body candlestick) accompanied by a significant decrease in trading volume, showing that low-price supply has been absorbed. A good price base will be formed if the index retests this bottom zone in a few sessions without new strong declines, confirming that demand is starting to prevail at the key support threshold.
The recovery confirmation stage is only really clear when the market enters a decisive upward momentum, overcoming the 1,720-1,730 point barrier. At this time, liquidity needs to gradually improve steadily through each session to prove that active cash flow is returning. The wide price increase range led by large capitalization groups will help improve market breadth, eliminate risks of "price traps" and create positive psychological momentum for the index to maintain the points just conquered.
Finally, the short-term uptrend was officially established when VN-Index formed a bottom-up structure higher than the previous bottom (Higher Low). To break through the resistance zone of 1,760–1,780 points, the market needs a strong liquidity boost, exploding in both volume and price range. The consensus from the net buying force of foreign investors will also be a "catalyst" to shift market psychology from defensive to proactive.
