In the last trading week of January 2026, VN-Index suffered strong adjustment pressure right from the beginning of the week when profit-taking activities increased significantly in the pillar stock group. The deep decline quickly pulled the index back to the psychological threshold of 1,800 points.
In this price range, selling pressure gradually cooled down while bottom-fishing demand appeared selectively, helping the index improve significantly in the last two sessions of the week and somewhat narrowing the previous decrease. However, liquidity still maintained at a low level, showing that investor sentiment is still cautious after a long series of adjustments.
At the end of the trading week, VN-Index closed at 1,829.04 points, down 2.23% compared to the previous week. Accumulated in the week, the average matched order volume on the HOSE exchange reached 912 million shares/session, down more than 15% compared to the previous week, the average trading value reached 29,404 billion VND/session, down more than 16% compared to the previous week.
Foreign investors continued to maintain a not very positive net selling status in the last week of January with a total net selling value of 1,836.8 billion VND.
Last week, the group of stocks with the best increase was oil and gas +13.19%, retail +9.32% and seafood +4.42%. In the opposite direction, real estate lost 11.7%, aviation decreased by nearly 7.3% and chemicals decreased by nearly 6% are the three industry groups under the strongest pressure.
It can be seen that after a period of playing a leading role in liquidity and growth momentum from the end of 2025 to the beginning of the year, the large-cap stock group is gradually entering a clearer correction phase. Except for a few state-owned enterprises (SOEs) stocks that still maintain a relatively stable state, mainly belonging to the oil and gas and banking groups, where businesses have clear asset foundations or have their own stories enough to retain cash flow, most of the SOE group has begun to weaken in terms of price increase momentum.
This loss of momentum is a positive adjustment state when the market has just experienced an uneven price increase and does not reflect a good macroeconomic outlook but is only increasing due to liquidity. In addition, with the current high margin level, although not a factor affecting the market's upward momentum, it makes the level of fluctuation stronger in the coming time.
The analysis group of HSC Securities Company gave the view that the noteworthy short-term risk comes from seasonal factors, when individual investors' cash flow tends to withdraw before the Lunar New Year holiday. Liquidity may therefore continue to weaken and remain at a lower than average level for a period of time, especially in the context that profit-taking pressure is still present. This makes the current correction phase likely not only technical in a few sessions, but may extend to the post-Tet period, from mid to late February.
Regarding the medium and long-term vision, experts from Yuanta Securities Company built two scenarios. In which the base scenario is assessed to have the highest probability, the market maintains an upward trend, with VN-Index heading towards the 2,280 point mark, suitable for the current valuation level.
The most important driving force still comes from corporate profit growth. Yuanta forecasts that the total market EPS in 2026 will increase by about 19%, of which real estate recorded the highest growth rate, about 33%. Banking, securities, retail and oil and gas services are expected to maintain double-digit growth.
Besides profit growth, the market is also supported by many catalysts such as upgrade prospects, IPO waves, and policies to support the development of both the private and state economies.
However, geopolitical risks and trade tensions are still unpredictable variables. In unfavorable circumstances, the market may break through 1,475 points, but the probability of occurring is significantly lower than the base scenario.
