The Vietnamese stock market is in a correction phase after approaching the peak of nearly 1,900 points at the beginning of last week. VN-Index lost nearly 100 points after 7 consecutive declining sessions, thereby falling back to around 1,800 points. This is the longest consecutive decline in more than 7 years, since the end of December 2018.
The 1,800 point mark used to play a key support area in the past and, as expected by investors, demand was gradually activated in today's trading session (January 29) to help the market have a technical recovery momentum.
However, the VN-Index experienced a volatile session when selling pressure overwhelmed most of the trading time. Thanks to bottom-fishing cash flow rising towards the end of the session, the index jumped more than 12 points, to 1,815 points, thereby ending the 7-session consecutive decline before that. However, liquidity is still quite cautious when the matched order value on HOSE is only around 23,650 billion VND. Regarding foreign transactions, the group of foreign investors continued to net sell nearly 600 billion VND across the market.
In general, despite weakening liquidity and the market under adjustment pressure from some industry groups, VN-Index still maintained the 1,800 point mark thanks to the rotational support of pillar stocks and cash flow focused on the gaining group. This development reflects a cautious but not negative psychology, showing that the market is in a period of accumulation and waiting for new signals.
Experts from TPS Securities Company expect demand to gradually be activated in the upcoming trading sessions, helping the market maintain its recovery momentum. However, the initial recovery level is likely to be modest, as the index needs to surpass the near resistance zones at 1,840 points and 1,900 points respectively.
In terms of market structure, although VN-Index is under adjustment pressure mainly from the group of stocks belonging to the Vingroup ecosystem, market breadth still maintains a positive state. Cash flow tends to differentiate clearly and is highly selective, instead of spreading according to the index as in previous periods.
Accordingly, although the recovery of the index may not be too large, the market is still forming a stable foundation in the short term, creating conditions for selective investment opportunities.
Forecasting the diễn biến of the stock market in 2026, Yuanta built two scenarios, in which the base scenario is assessed to have the highest probability, about 67%. According to this scenario, the market maintains an upward trend, with VN-Index heading towards the 2,280 point mark, in line with the current valuation level. The most important driving force still comes from corporate profit growth.
Yuanta forecasts that the total market EPS in 2026 will increase by about 19%, of which real estate recorded the highest growth rate, about 33%. Banking, securities, retail and oil and gas service groups are expected to maintain double-digit growth.
Besides profit growth, the market is also supported by many catalysts such as upgrade prospects, IPO waves, and policies to support the development of both the private and state economies.
However, geopolitical risks and trade tensions are still unpredictable variables. In unfavorable circumstances, the market may break through 1,475 points, but the probability of occurring is significantly lower than the base scenario, only at 33%.
Regarding the leading industry group, the market still mainly revolves around groups with large capitalization ratios such as banking, real estate, securities and food production. Real estate is forecast to recover but differentiate strongly, so investors need to choose businesses with good foundations instead of spreading investment. In addition, the oil and gas group is expected to increase its role and capitalization ratio in 2026.
