VN-Index has experienced a very volatile week, down more than 40 points, closing at 1,787.45 points, marking the third consecutive week of decline, mainly due to selling pressure concentrated in large-cap groups while foreign investors still net sold thousands of billions of VND. The positive point is that bottom-fishing cash flow has appeared, helping to narrow downward momentum in some sessions, showing that the low price zone still has demand interest.
However, many experts still believe that the market cannot be confirmed that it has passed the most difficult period. The short-term trend is still weakening and is likely to retest the 1.770-1.800 point zone - the bottom of June 2026. While market liquidity is still at the lowest level since the beginning of 2026, showing that large cash flow is still cautious.
In addition, external factors such as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, the risk of oil supply disruptions and policy statements from the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will continue to dominate short-term sentiment.
However, the medium and long-term uptrend has basically not been broken, so the risk of adjustment next week is likely to be technical, rebalancing supply and demand rather than starting a new downtrend. The upcoming Q2 business results announcement season will be an important factor in confirming the ability to create a sustainable bottom.
On that basis, in the trading week of July 20-24, the scenario predicted by many securities companies is that VN-Index is likely to move in a state of tug-of-war, interspersed with fluctuations in the range of 1,760-1,805 points, when the market needs more time to test the support zone and form a new supply-demand balance.
According to the assessment of VPBank Securities Company (VPBankS), VN-Index is still looking for a new balance zone when liquidity is low and cash flow is differentiated. The market may continue to experience strong ups and downs to test buying and selling power. The 1,810 point zone will be a resistance level for VN-Index.
Beta Securities Company believes that VN-Index is still in a short-term correction phase, but the positive trend in the medium and long term has not been broken.The 1,750-1,770 point zone may become an area to support the index if selling pressure continues.Short-term investors should avoid chasing purchases when the market recovers but there is no consensus.
In the context that the general liquidity of the market is still in the low zone, the Q2 business results announcement season is likely to play a "filter" role, helping cash flow differentiate more clearly between businesses. Accordingly, businesses that record positive profit growth in Q2/2026, and also have a basis to maintain that growth momentum in the second half of the year are expected to attract cash flow in the coming time.
The appropriate strategy in the current context is to prioritize business quality rather than chasing short-term fluctuations in stock prices. Investors should focus on businesses with solid financial foundations, clear profit growth, valuation that has become attractive after the adjustment and especially still maintaining the growth trend this year.
Leading stocks with good liquidity, interested by foreign investors or belonging to industry groups that are benefiting from macroeconomic trends such as banking, securities, oil and gas, public investment, infrastructure, technology and some export enterprises will be worth considering choices.
This is a suitable period to restructure the portfolio, gradually accumulating quality stocks in correction phases instead of trying to accurately predict the short-term bottom. When the business profit cycle improves and cash flow returns stronger, stocks with good foundations will be the group leading the new upward trend of the market.
The important thing is that investors need to be patient and maintain a reasonable proportion, because opportunities often appear when market sentiment is still cautious, not when optimism has spread widely.
