In the trading week from July 13-17, the stock market recorded many strong fluctuations, causing VN-Index to lose the 1,800 point mark. Pressure spread across many industry groups, especially real estate and banking.
VN-Index ended the week down nearly 41 points to 1,787.45 points, as a series of industry groups also faced great pressure. Many real estate and bank stocks took away a significant amount of points. However, the most noteworthy thing is the story of the market's liquidity being sharply reduced. Data shows that liquidity on the HOSE floor decreased by about 30% in the last 3 months, down to about 13,000 billion VND per session.
It can be said that the score at this time is no longer a reliable measure to assess market health. VN-Index approaching the historical peak is mainly thanks to the pulling force from a few large-cap stocks, while the overall picture is not very positive. The index is increasing but the number of declining stocks still prevails, cash flow is concentrated in a few small groups. Therefore, what investors are most interested in at this time is not VN-Index at what level, but liquidity, the real lifeblood of the market.
Current liquidity is still very far from the necessary level to confirm a sustainable upward trend. According to observations by some experts, liquidity per session needs to return to the level of 25,000 billion VND or more to be truly remarkable. That is the threshold showing that large cash flow has entered the game, investors are no longer standing aside to observe but are ready to disburse on a significant scale. Below that threshold, every increase is potentially risky and lacks sustainability.
Besides liquidity, the market is now in great need of a strong enough catalyst to change the situation. It could be a move to lower interest rates from the State Bank, a specific support policy for the economy, or clearer signals from the market upgrade process. If there is no catalyst from the macro, then at least the market needs a strong shake, a deep enough correction to shake off weak positions, creating a more attractive price level for newly participating cash flow.
According to the assessment of securities analysts, Q2/2026 business results will become the most important filter for cash flow. Cash flow is likely to prioritize businesses that not only have high profit growth, but also exceed market expectations.
However, this does not mean that macroeconomic stories will lose their role. Market ranking, public investment and credit growth are still the foundations that help identify industry groups with medium-term prospects. It can be understood that macroeconomic stories help cash flow choose investment areas, while business results will determine which businesses are truly prioritized in each area.
In the short term, business results will create a tipping point and differentiation at the stock level.In the medium term, macroeconomic stories still play a role as an anchor for expectations and valuation.The best opportunity will be in businesses that combine favorable industry stories and real profit growth.
