According to JP Morgan, GDP per capita of Vietnam has grown by an average of 7.1%/year in the period 2017-2022, reaching more than 4,000 USD/person and possibly reaching 7,500 USD by 2030. The urbanization rate continues to increase, accompanied by the trend of upgrading the living and consumption needs of the middle class.
With a young population structure, Vietnam is in the "golden population" stage - a platform for rapid consumer development similar to China and Thailand before 2010. The modern retail penetration rate in Vietnam is currently only 12%, lower than the 20-45% of ASEAN countries. This laid the foundation for the explosion of modern retail as well as consumer - retail stocks in the coming years.
Typical representative of Vietnamese consumers
Masan Group is assessed by JP Morgan as one of the typical enterprises to represent the story of Vietnamese consumption. For example, Masan Consumer - Masan's express consumer goods segment - owns 5 key brands with each brand's revenue of over 100 million USD/year, including CHIN-SU, Nam Ngu, Omachi, Kokomi and Wake-Up 247. These brands account for 80% of MCH's domestic revenue in the past 7 years, with outstanding coverage when more than 98% of Vietnamese households use at least one product. Masan Consumer currently operates the largest food and beverage distribution network in Vietnam with 313,000 traditional points of sale and 8,500 modern retail points of sale.
WinCommerce (a member company of Masan), a company that owns a leading retail location in Vietnam with a system of more than 4,000 stores/supermarket. This enterprise, after a period of restructuring, recently announced that it had successfully built a separate store model, suitable for the needs of each area.
Specifically, WinMart+ Rural focuses on reasonable prices to serve consumers who are more interested in prices in rural areas; while the urban WiN store model focuses on convenience for busy urban residents. Both models are committed to providing superior customer experience and high-quality fresh products throughout the system.
Since its launch, MEATDeli, a brand of Masan MEATLife, has made a strong impression in the Vietnamese food industry. With the mission of providing delicious, soft fresh meat products with Europa Air - Chilled cooling technology, MEATDeli brand is the top choice of millions of Vietnamese families.
At the 2025 General Meeting of Shareholders, Masan representative affirmed that Masan MEATLife's long-term strategy is to transform into a branded meat processing company and expand cooperation with WinCommerce. This unit plans to work with WinCommerce to boost distribution through the WiN+ system to exploit market opportunities worth $2 billion.
With a diverse product portfolio ranging from spices, convenient foods to energy drinks, processed meats and a wide distribution network across Vietnam, Masan Group is creating an " Point of Life" ecosystem present in all daily spending of Vietnamese consumers.
In addition, over the years, Masan has also been gradually focusing on the consumer - retail sector and this is reflected in the revenue structure from 2015 to present. Specifically, Masan's revenue portfolio structure is clearly transforming with nearly 93% of Q1/2025 revenue coming from the consumer - retail segment, a sharp increase compared to 45% in 2015. This unit is also making efforts to simplify the corporate structure, reduce ownership in non-core segments and IPO Masan Consumer.
Attractive valuation with growth potential
In the latest updated report, Bao Viet Securities (BVSC) gave an optimistic assessment of Masan Group's business prospects in 2025. The consumer - retail segment will be a pillar of growth along with strategic initiatives and the possibility of Vietnam being upgraded to a market ranking, all of which are factors that help MSN shares have significant room for price increase in the period of 2025 - 2026. Using the partial synthesis method (SoTP), BVSC valued Masan Group's MSN stock at VND 89,200/share.
In addition to the first quarter of the first quarter announced business, this business also owns many attractive factors of foreign capital such as: FOL (Foreign ownership ratio) of MSN has a large room, creating a space for new capital flows and lower valuation than historical average; High liquidity, with large market capitalization and vibrant transactions. In addition, MSN's net debt/eBitda debt ratio remained at a healthy level of 2.9x, reflecting a solid balance sheet. By the end of the first quarter of 2025, the free cash flow (FCF) of this business increased by 81% over the same period, reaching 743 billion VND - showing the ability to create a good cash flow in the context of many businesses cutting investment.
In the context of many fluctuations in the macro economy, domestic and foreign investors are looking for companies that can lead in the "golden time" of the consumer story in Vietnam for long-term investment. In particular, MSN is expected to be a bright spot with a leading consumer - retail ecosystem, well-invested with a clear strategy, aiming to serve more than 100 million Vietnamese people.
