Financial market is bustling in the context of a stable macro economy
Vietnam's economy is showing good resilience to the global fluctuations. The July manufacturing PMI reached 52.4 points - the first time it surpassed the 50 threshold in 3 months, reflecting an improvement in manufacturing, partly thanks to the positive results of tariff negotiations with the US. Import and export in July reached 82.2 billion USD, up 16.8% over the same period, bringing the total turnover in the first 7 months of the year to nearly 514.7 billion USD and a trade surplus of about 10.2 billion USD.
Next, the average CPI in 7 months increased by 3.26%, budget revenue reached 80.2% of the estimate, although the State has exempted, reduced, and extended about 171.7 trillion VND in taxes, fees, and land rents. Public investment disbursement in 7 months reached 43.9% of the plan; registered FDI capital in 7 months reached about 24.1 billion USD - the highest level in 5 years, reflecting the trend of expanding production.
In addition to positive economic indicators, credit in the whole system in the first 7 months of the year increased by about 10% compared to the end of 2024. Speaking at the regular Government meeting in July online with provinces and centrally run cities, held on August 7, Central Party Committee member, Governor of the State Bank Nguyen Thi Hong said that in the first 7 months of 2025, credit in the whole system increased by about 10% compared to the end of 2024. Credit on real estate and stocks increased but is still under control; the proportion of securities lending accounted for only 1.5% of total outstanding loans, and the proportion of short-term capital used for medium and long-term lending was still below 30%.
Gold is still the most vibrant investment channel
Sharing with Lao Dong, Dr. Nguyen Tri Hieu, an economic expert, said that gold prices are "shaking" due to profit-taking activities of investors, but the medium and long-term trend is still increasing. "The reason is that the global trade war has not yet ended, geopolitical risks are complicated and the world economy is still unstable," said Mr. Hieu.
Domestic gold bar prices have increased by more than 47% compared to the beginning of 2025. Dr. Hieu's forecast shows that SJC gold bars will soon conquer the record of 125 million VND/tael, and may even reach 130 million VND/tael in the near future.
Among investment channels such as gold, stocks, real estate, stocks, savings, bonds and finally digital currency, gold is still the most vibrant investment channel in Vietnam. The psychology of Vietnamese people's preference for gold has been around for a long time and cannot be replaced" - Dr. Hieu commented.
According to the World Gold Council, in the second quarter of 2025, Vietnam's gold demand decreased by 20% in volume but still increased by 12% in value. The organization predicts that although gold's rally may slow in the second half of 2025, the trend will continue to increase, thanks to the demand from central banks and ETFs, and the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates.
exchange rate under pressure but has a chance to cool down
Since the beginning of 2025, the USD/VND exchange rate has increased from 25,484 to 26,225, despite the USD falling more than 7% against the international basket in the first 6 months of the year - the sharpest decrease since 2006. According to Dr. Nguyen Tri Hieu, the reason includes high demand for USD due to Vietnam's dependence on exports, the impact of domestic and foreign macro factors, and thinner foreign exchange reserves than international standards. Vietnam's average 3-month import is up to 108 billion USD, while foreign exchange reserves are about 80 billion USD - lower than the international recommendation to compensate for at least 3 months of import.
Dr. Hieu assessed that there is a 70% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates in September. If interest rates decrease, the USD value will decrease, and the pressure to increase the USD/VND exchange rate will also ease, he said.
The State Bank can use many tools to operate exchange rates such as adjusting money supply, interest rates, administrative measures for foreign exchange, or increasing mandatory reserves. However, in the long term, it is necessary to increase foreign currency sources from exports, international loans, ODA and interest.
For businesses, Dr. Hieu recommends that businesses need to develop three exchange rate fluctuation scenarios (increase by 6%, 3% and below 3%), and use foreign currency futures contracts to fix the exchange rate. In addition, we should look for alternative export markets to reduce the risk from a single market like the US.
Securities waiting for a breakout
Since the beginning of 2025, the Vietnamese stock market has maintained a positive growth momentum in terms of scores, capitalization and liquidity. At the end of July 2025, the VN-Index reached 1,502.5 points, up 18.6% compared to the end of 2024, officially surpassing the 1,500-point threshold.
Trading statistics on the HOSE show that in the week of August 4-8, 2025, the VN-Index recorded 5 consecutive increases, plus 89.74 points, equivalent to more than 6%, to a record of 1,584.95 points.
According to ABS's assessment, in August 2025, the VN-Index is in an upward trend in both the short and medium term. If it breaks above 1,590 points, the market could continue to increase; otherwise, it will make a short-term adjustment before recovering. The opportunity to buy is still present in stocks that have not increased much or have just been adjusted.
Supporting factors include expectations of upgrading the Vietnamese stock market to emerging market in September 2025, the business results of the enterprise in the second quarter of 2025 grew by 26.1%, and foreign capital flows shifted to strong net buying.
In the context of many fluctuations in the global economy, Vietnam maintains a stable foundation, while the gold market, exchange rates and stocks are all moving strongly. Growth opportunities are clear, but to take advantage, both operators and businesses need to proactively respond, both exploiting potential and minimizing risks in the current "hot" period.
