The past trading week continued to be a very impressive trading week for the stock market when the index surpassed a new peak accompanied by a historic liquidation session. During the major increases and accumulation adjustments before continuing to increase, a slowdown accompanied by the phenomenon of differentiation of industry groups continues to occur. The group of securities stocks and banks with many stocks have signaled to "slow down" for other stocks such as construction and investment, and oil and gas to replace the lead.
The stock market has developed positively in the context of a relatively stable domestic situation with inflation controlled at 3.26%, exchange rate fluctuating around the depreciation of 3% despite strong liquidity injected into the economy. The weakening of the USD and the domestic monetary policy easing roadmap continue to create a foundation for the market. Credit growth reached 9.8% by the end of July, showing that the State Bank remains steadfast in its orientation of supporting growth by maintaining abundant liquidity and low interest rates.
Commenting on the next developments, most experts believe that the VN-Index will continue to maintain a positive trend in the medium and long term. However, in the short term, there may still be technical adjustments, taking the momentum to conquer new heights.
According to analysts, the VN-Index may need more time to accumulate momentum to gradually increase in the uptrend still heading towards the target of 1,600 - 1,635 in August. The corrections are only short-term to form a new balance before continuing the upward trend in the medium and long term, towards the peak of 1,600 points.
Mirae Asset Securities Company's analysis team found that the corrections in late July and early August reflected the cyclization of the market after surpassing the historical peak. Although corrections of more than 4% are relatively rare for the VN-Index, profit-taking pressure is likely to continue to be maintained in the first half of August as the market continues to absorb mixed news about the impact of tariffs on Vietnam's growth prospects.
However, these are considered short-term fluctuations, helping the market form a new balance before entering an uptrend in the medium and long term. Although the macro context still has many uncertainties, policies to promote domestic growth such as expanding credit, boosting public investment, loosening business regulations, tax reductions and stimulating consumption are creating a foundation to stabilize cash flow in the market in the remaining months of 2025. In particular, the market is waiting for a new wave from the prospect of upgrading to emerging market according to FTSE's criteria in the upcoming September review.
Therefore, Mirae Asset maintains a positive view on the medium and long term but at the same time recommends being cautious in the short term. The current corrections are considered an opportunity to help the market establish a new balance zone, thereby reducing volatility from the next 2-3 weeks.
In the newly published August strategy report, SSI Securities Company (SSI Research) also assessed the optimistic sentiment of investors with many outstanding catalysts, including favorable macro conditions when Vietnam officially reached a trade agreement with the US with an applicable tax rate of 20%, lower than the 46% announced in April. In addition, there is also a positive effect from the second quarter 2025 business results reporting season that exceeds expectations and spreads in most industry groups.
Although the market may face short-term fluctuations due to increased profit-taking pressure after a high margin period at the end of July, SSI Research commented that Vietnam is still attractive in the medium and long term thanks to stable macro and recovering growth. The Government continues to promote public investment disbursement, especially in transport infrastructure and energy. SSI experts expect the VN-Index to move towards the 1,750-1,800 range in 2026.
