The Growth Lab organization of Harvard Kennedy School (USA) believes that Vietnam is in the leading position in global growth in the next decade thanks to its diverse and advanced manufacturing capacity. Vietnam is forecast to lead the world in GDP growth per capita. Growth forecasts are based on the Economic Complexity Index (ECI) of the Growth Lab organization - an index reflecting the diversity and sophistication of the potential manufacturing capacity in each country's exports.
Growth forecasts for the next decade will focus on 3 global poles: East Asia, Central Asia and East Africa. Some Asian economies have sufficient economic complexity to drive fastest growth by 2034, led by Vietnam, China, Thailand, Laos, Indonesia, Malaysia and India.
Similarly, the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) forecasts that Vietnam is one of the economies with the highest growth in the region thanks to its role in the supply chain and FDI. This forecast does not reflect cyclical factors, but is mainly based on the structural characteristics of the Vietnamese economy in recent years. First, Vietnam continues to benefit from the shift in the supply chain in the Asia-Pacific region. Second, Vietnam's ability to absorb FDI capital flows has improved significantly compared to the previous period. Third, high-tech exports continue to be an important fulcrum for the Vietnamese economy.
Seeking Alpha (Israel) commented that Vietnam has emerged as one of the fastest growing economies in ASEAN and surpassed the Philippines (an economy that FTSE Russell has ranked in the emerging market group) in terms of GDP per capita and stock market capitalization since 2020.
In recent decades, Vietnam has achieved the highest growth rate among key ASEAN countries, supported by structural reforms and strong foreign direct investment (FDI). FDI is the main driving force driving Vietnam's transformation into an export-oriented economy. Electronics and machinery are currently dominating exports, replacing textiles and garments to become the leading export commodity since 2019. This shift has strengthened Vietnam's role in the global value chain and helped maintain trade surpluses since 2018, strengthening macroeconomic stability along with budget deficits and relatively low government debt.
Vietnam's capital market is developing rapidly in parallel with economic expansion. The market capitalization of the FTSE Frontier Vietnam Index increased from 11 billion USD in 2015 to 59 billion USD in 2025, surpassing both the benchmark indices of the frontier market and emerging markets. Although economic growth mainly relies on manufacturing, the stock market focuses on industries with domestic revenue. FTSE Russell's plan to upgrade Vietnam to a second-tier emerging market in 2026 is expected to attract more institutional investment capital and improve liquidity, giving investors the opportunity to access Vietnam's long-term growth story, whether indirectly through domestic-oriented industries.
Optimistic signals of Vietnam's tourism industry are also recorded. Travel and Tour World (USA) said that the number of tourists both abroad and internationally is driving Vietnam's tourism industry to develop more strongly than ever. Vietnamese airlines have quickly grasped the demand, increased flight frequency, added new routes and offered special incentives to meet the strong increase in bookings. With this unprecedented growth, Vietnam's tourism industry is ready to continue to develop, turning 2026 into a year full of interesting opportunities for both tourists and businesses in the industry, bringing significant economic benefits to the country.
