In 2025, Vietnam is in the group of fastest growing economies in Asia, with GDP increasing by 8.02%, the second highest level in the period 2011-2025. This result is considered an important foundation to move into 2026 with a more favorable mindset.
In a report released on January 21, the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) forecasts Vietnam's GDP growth to reach 7.6% in 2026, the highest in the ASEAN+3 group including 10 ASEAN countries along with China, Japan and South Korea. Some other organizations also gave positive forecasts: UOB forecasts 7.5%, HSBC 6.7% and World Bank 6.3%.
According to AMRO, this prospect reflects Vietnam's increasing role in the regional supply chain, especially in the field of high-tech manufacturing and export, along with stable domestic demand and a relatively solid macroeconomic environment.
The confidence of the foreign business community continues to be a bright spot. The European Chamber of Commerce in Vietnam (EuroCham) said that the Business Confidence Index in the fourth quarter of 2025 reached 80 points, the highest level in 7 years. About 88% of European businesses surveyed expressed confidence in Vietnam's economic prospects for the period 2026-2030.
From an investor's perspective, Vietnam's attractiveness comes not only from cost advantages but also thanks to the expansion of the production and supporting service ecosystem, the increasingly deep participation in high value-added segments and continuous improvements in the investment environment.
International organizations often emphasize three main drivers supporting growth prospects. The first is foreign direct investment (FDI), which continues to play an important role, especially in the fields of electronics, technology, green production and digital transformation. Vietnam's position in the strategy of diversifying production locations of multinational corporations is increasingly prominent.
Second is domestic consumption, increasing by about 8% in 2025. Domestic consumption and investment are considered important pillars, helping the economy better absorb external shocks.
Third is tourism, recovering strongly with more than 21 million international visitors in 2025, thereby supporting the service sector, employment and household spending.
AMRO also noted global demand for technology, including advanced electronics, semiconductors, digital services and artificial intelligence applications, which are creating significant momentum for highly open Asian economies such as Vietnam. Deeper integration into the regional technology value chain is considered a long-term advantage.
However, international organizations believe that maintaining growth momentum requires cautious policy management. In an update at the end of January 2026, Fitch Ratings assessed that stability and continuity in senior leadership can support policy implementation and reform.
Fitch also warned that the high growth target could put pressure on maintaining rapid credit expansion, increasing leverage risks in an economy with large trade openness. The credit-to-GDP ratio has increased rapidly in recent years, reflecting the important role of credit in promoting growth. The State Bank's credit growth target of about 15% in 2026 is seen as an effort to balance growth support and risk control.
Risks from the global trade environment are still present. Fitch noted Vietnam's position in the increasingly complex supply chain could lead to closer monitoring of origin and transit of goods. AMRO also mentioned uncertainties related to trade policy and international financial conditions.
Overall, international assessments show that Vietnam's opportunity lies in continuing to maintain macroeconomic stability, improve the investment environment, improve capital flow quality and increase productivity. This is considered the foundation for Vietnam's economy to enter a new, more sustainable growth cycle from 2026 onwards.
