Price storm" from the Middle East pours down to Southeast Asia
According to the Domestic Market Management and Development Department (Ministry of Industry and Trade), escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East since the beginning of 2026 have triggered an earthquake in the global energy market. Those shock waves hit oil import economies in Southeast Asia directly with uneven destructive power, depending on a decisive factor: whether each government's price stabilization policy is strong and flexible enough to absorb the shock.
According to statistics released by seasia. stats on March 29, 2026, since the conflict broke out, the Philippines has led the region in fuel price increases with gasoline increasing by 54.2% and diesel increasing by 81.6%. Myanmar recorded an increase of 55.4% for gasoline and 76.9% for diesel. Cambodia suffered a similar situation with 52.8% and 78.7% respectively.
Persistent and flexible in the eye of the storm
While the Philippines declared a state of national emergency, Thailand witnessed people queuing overnight at gas stations and Myanmar suffered a fuel price increase of more than 55%, Vietnam is becoming one of the few rare bright spots in Southeast Asia in the energy crisis considered the worst in decades.
The Domestic Market Management and Development Department said that the Gasoline and Oil Price Stabilization Fund was activated up to 9 times in just one month, with a total estimated expenditure of 5,300 billion VND (about 217 million USD). This is the first time in history that the state budget has been directly advanced to the Fund - with a scale of 8,000 billion VND (about 303 million USD) according to Decision No. 483 signed by Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh on March 27.
In parallel with the Price Stabilization Fund, the Government deploys many fiscal tools at the same time:
Preferential import tax is 0% for some gasoline and oil items from March 9 to April 30, 2026;
Environmental protection tax to 0% on gasoline (excluding ethanol), diesel and aviation fuel from midnight March 26 to April 15;
Special consumption tax on gasoline reduced from 8–10% to 0%;
VAT declaration exemption while still deducting input tax.
The Domestic Market Management and Development Authority said that the estimated total budget revenue reduction is about 7,200 billion VND/month (about 295 million USD), a price that the Government assesses as "necessary to stabilize prices and reduce cost pressure".
Regarding the operating mechanism, the important breakthrough is that from March 6, the inter-ministry of Industry and Trade - Finance is allowed to adjust prices immediately when the base price increases by over 7% - without waiting for the end of the 7-day cycle. By March 19, according to Resolution 55, this mechanism is even more flexible: allowing adjustments within one day if fluctuations exceed 15%. This helps avoid the phenomenon of price shock accumulation as has occurred in Thailand.
As a result, by March 26, the price of E5 RON92 gasoline decreased to 23,326 VND/liter - 6,788 VND lower than the peak of March 24, a decrease of 22.5% in just a few days after tax measures were applied.
Without the Price Stabilization Fund, the price of E5 RON92 gasoline could have reached 30,180 VND/liter, RON95-III gasoline nearly 33,700 VND/liter and kerosene about 38,930 VND/liter, higher than the actual price by 3,000–5,000 VND/liter/kg.
Lessons from the crisis
The 2026 energy crisis clearly reveals the deep division between countries in the region based on capacity and policy intervention will. The Philippines is completely dependent on the market, suffering the heaviest losses. Thailand has a stabilization fund but is not enough - collapsing midway. Malaysia is reforming subsidies right when the crisis strikes, falling into a dilemma. Indonesia maintains comprehensive subsidies to protect its people in the short term but is accumulating huge fiscal risks.
Vietnam, with a flexible combination of the Price Stabilization Fund, tax and fee adjustment, and a dynamic operating mechanism, is showing a relatively balanced model between protecting consumers, maintaining macroeconomic stability, and avoiding long-term budget burdens. The budget advance mechanism with a 12-month reimbursement commitment is an important difference - demonstrating fiscal discipline in an emergency context.
Experts say this positive result reflects "flexibility in management and rapid policy responses".
The crisis is not over. The Strait of Hormuz is still unstable. Global oil prices are still fluctuating. But in at least the first month of the biggest energy storm in the region in this decade, Vietnam has shown that it has sufficiently strong policy tools, acting quickly enough and with close inter-ministerial coordination, it can completely protect the energy price defense for people and the economy.
