At the end of the trading week, the VN-Index increased by 33.85 points (+2.26%), to 1,531.13 points and recorded the sixth consecutive week of increase. Average matched liquidity on the HOSE reached 1,442 million units/session, up slightly compared to the previous week, and the average trading value reached VND 36,380 billion/session, up more than 6%.
Throughout the end of June 2025, the stock market has been trading explosively along with active cash flow. The index quickly surpassed the 1,400-point barrier and did not take much time to return to the historical peak, while the total trading volume on HOSE last week reached more than 6.8 billion units, a new record.
Trading liquidity on all three exchanges remained above the billion-dollar threshold, showing the confident sentiment of domestic and foreign investors. In particular, margin cash flow contributes greatly to promoting liquidity, helping the trading market to be more vibrant. According to the law of uptrends, when trading value and index increase, margin also increases accordingly.
The increase of the Vietnamese stock market is driven by a series of positive factors. Macro news creates positive expectations for exports and investment flows. Regarding the global financial market, the US Federal Reserve (FED) sent a signal of a rate cut cycle in the next 6-12 months. This move will benefit the Vietnamese bond market and support expectations of stability or price increase of the VND.
In the country, it is determined to set a GDP growth rate of 8% and solutions and policies to support economic growth through promoting public investment in infrastructure, reducing VAT, accelerating real estate project licensing and loosening credit.
Along with that, the expectation of Vietnam being upgraded to emerging market status by FTSE in September this year is becoming increasingly clear, thanks to the strong progress of trading system modernization. Reforms in market infrastructure and legal corridors continue to strengthen the prospect of upgrading.
With the overall market's positivity at the present time, experts predict that the VN-Index will almost certainly surpass the peak of the times next week.
Up to this point, market valuations are generally still at a reasonable level, not falling into a state of being too hot. More importantly, support comes from truly improved profit quality in key industries such as banking, construction, retail and energy. Domestic cash flow is stable, foreign investors are returning to net buying and the business results of the second quarter of 2025 revealed many positive signals - these are factors supporting the stock price level.
However, there is still an adjustment scenario being considered. The current trend of the VN-Index depends on many leading stocks as well as capital flows from foreign investors. In case large stocks are strongly adjusted or foreign capital flows are no longer strong enough to attract the market, it will likely negatively affect the VN-Index.
In the uptrend trend, investors need to pay attention to the possibility of technical adjustments due to short-term profit-taking activities from domestic investors. Although the market has often reached a peak, creating a positive psychological effect, making investors more bold in using financial leverage, in the context of the VN-Index continuously increasing since the beginning of July, the risk of fluctuations and technical adjustments is increasing.
In history, there have been many times after hot increases there have been deep adjustments, especially for stocks with high speculation and low liquidity. Therefore, investors should not buy new stocks too FOMO, especially in stocks that have increased sharply.
