In yesterday's stock market trading session (February 12), the VN-Index decreased slightly and gradually weakened towards the end of the session. Selling pressure increased rapidly as the VN-Index approached the 1,272-point mark, especially in large-cap stocks, making it impossible for the market to break out.
The relatively low liquidity has shown more caution as the chasing status has been limited in the leading groups. The positive point is that the correction has not triggered strong selling pressure and large-cap stocks are still holding up well for the index.
Closing in red, but yesterday's session did not have enough impact to change the trend and is still within the accumulation criteria.
According to analysis by experts from UP Securities Company, due to reduced liquidity and prolonged selling pressure from foreign investors, investors should maintain a reasonable proportion in their portfolio and prioritize stocks with solid business fundamentals. For large-cap stocks, if there are no clear signs of recovery from support zones, it is possible to gradually take profits to minimize risks from foreign selling trends.
Asean Securities Company commented that the world stock market continues to develop quite positively even though Chairman Jerome Powell recently stated that the Fed does not need to rush to lower interest rates, as data shows that the US economy is still strong and investors are waiting for US inflation data for January, scheduled to be released on February 12.
Vietnam's stock market is likely to continue to fluctuate until the macro backdrop stabilizes and global trade tensions show signs of easing.
Looking at the market outlook for February, ABS Securities expects the Vietnamese market to grow thanks to internal strength. In January, although production narrowed partly due to seasonal factors during the holidays, the macro situation still had bright spots from foreign economic activities with a positive trade surplus of 3.03 billion USD, newly registered FDI capital growing strongly by 48.6% over the same period and the number of foreign tourists growing strongly by 36.9%.
Meanwhile, the Government is determined to achieve the GDP growth target of 8% for 2025 and set a high credit growth target of 16%, along with many decisions to reform institutions and promote public investment from the beginning of the year.
As for the tariff war between the US and other countries, it is currently in its early stages and is increasingly tense as the Trump administration announced that it will soon announce the level of tariffs on many countries on a reciprocal basis in the next few days. However, ABS expects that this will not have a negative impact on Vietnam, and Vietnam will even benefit somewhat.
ABS Securities Company has forecasted 2 scenarios for the market in February. Scenario 1 has a high probability when in the first days of February, the market has positive developments and many stocks have shown signs or confirmed bottoming out. ABS forecasts that the market will continue its positive trend in the short term and gradually shift to medium-term growth. VN-Index will increase in doubt until the weekly price chart confirms a medium-term uptrend when it breaks the resistance level of 1,284 - 1,310 points with high liquidity.
Scenario 2 is less positive, the market cannot break through the resistance at 1,284 - 1,310 points to confirm the medium-term uptrend but will continue to move positively in short-term uptrends with an average price range.
