According to the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, the tropical depression is tending to strengthen and has many notable developments.
At 13:00 on August 20, the center of the tropical depression was located at about 19.5 degrees North latitude; 109.9 degrees East longitude, in the area north of Hainan Island (China). The strongest wind near the center of the tropical depression is strong at level 6 (39 - 49km/h), gusting at level 8. The tropical depression is moving in a West direction, speed 5 - 10km/h.
Mr. Mai Van Khiem - Director of the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting said that it is forecast that around early tomorrow morning (August 21), the tropical depression will move into the Gulf of Tonkin area and is likely to strengthen into a storm, intensity level 8, gusts level 10.
Currently, the tropical depression is located on a trophic convergence zone. The axis of this trophic convergence zone passes through the area between the Southern Red River Delta and the North Central region. With the characteristic of maintaining activity on the trophic convergence zone, moving slowly, while the large-scale flow field and interaction with surrounding weather systems are still changing.
Therefore, forecasting models to date still have a certain dispersion in terms of trajectory, intensity and area of direct impact on land. According to current data, there are 2 main groups of disaster risk scenarios" - Mr. Khiem said.
According to a representative of the meteorological agency, scenario 1 is a scenario with a high probability of about 60 - 70%. The tropical depression after entering the Gulf of Tonkin moves slowly, with the possibility of strengthening into a level 8 storm, moving north and making landfall in the coastal area of the Northeast region.
This scenario will cause heavy rain in the North to increase again from August 21st and concentrate in the eastern region of the North, including Cao Bang, Thai Nguyen, Bac Ninh, Hung Yen, Hai Phong, Quang Ninh areas with heavy to very heavy rain" - Mr. Khiem analyzed.
The Director of the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting added that scenario 2 is the extreme possibility of rain, with a probability of about 30 - 40%.
According to scenario 2, after entering the Gulf of Tonkin and strengthening into a storm, the tropical depression/storm will continue to move slowly to the west and make landfall in the southern area of the Northern Delta and then weaken. This scenario will cause heavy to very heavy rain in the eastern North, peaking from August 22 - 25" - Mr. Khiem provided forecast information.
According to Mr. Mai Van Khiem, these scenarios will continue to change when the tropical depression moves deep into the Gulf of Tonkin in the next 1-2 days. Therefore, it is necessary to pay attention to monitoring the developments of the tropical depression, the situation of natural disasters, strong winds, and thunderstorms in the East Sea in the next bulletins of the Hydrometeorological agency.
