The National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting has issued a nationwide seasonal hydro-meteorological forecast bulletin (ie from November 2024 to April 2025).
The reporter had an interview with Dr. Hoang Phuc Lam - Deputy Director of the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting - about the most notable weather features during the above period.
Sir, what state is ENSO in and when does ENSO start to transition to La Nina phase?
- Currently, the ENSO phenomenon is in a neutral state but gradually leaning towards the cold phase (with the standard deviation of sea surface temperature in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean being -0.3 degrees Celsius lower than the multi-year average in the first week of October 2024).
It is forecasted that from November 2024 to January 2025, ENSO is likely to transition to La Nina state with a probability of 60 - 70%.
ENSO is forecast to remain in a weak La Nina state until around March - April 2025 with a probability of about 50 - 60%.
Since storm No. 5 in early October, the East Sea has not recorded any new tropical cyclones. How many more storms/tropical depressions are forecasted in the last months of the year, sir?
- We still emphasize that this year there is a high risk of storms causing heavy rain in the Central Central region during October - November.
From November 2024 to January 2025, storm/tropical depression activity in the East Sea and its impact on Vietnam's mainland is likely to be at a level approximately equal to or higher than the average of many years.
According to the average data of many years during the forecast period, there are 2.8 storms/tropical depressions in the East Sea, about 1.1 storms make landfall.
Storms/tropical depressions making landfall are likely to concentrate in the Central region and southern provinces. Beware of the possibility of storms/tropical depressions forming right in the East Sea.
Forecasting the complicated developments of storms/tropical depressions in the final stages of the year, what recommendations do you have for people?
- Storms always have very different developments and distributions of rain and wind intensity. Therefore, for all storms, the most important thing is to monitor regularly, follow the latest forecast information and especially in case of emergency storms - that is, there are only about 24 - 48 hours left to respond.
In case the meteorological agency issues an urgent storm warning, all response work must strictly follow the instructions of the National Steering Committee for Natural Disaster Prevention and Control and the local Command Committee to ensure prevention work, house reinforcement, evacuation, and review of vulnerable points to ensure minimizing unfortunate damage in natural disaster situations.
Given the complicated situation of natural disaster forecasting from now until the end of the year, the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting will closely monitor the development of the hydro-meteorological situation, strengthen and improve the quality of natural disaster forecast and warning bulletins.
Especially for natural disasters such as heavy rain, floods, landslides and flash floods; transmit diverse information on digital technology platforms and provide timely information to agencies and organizations in accordance with regulations to serve the work of preventing, combating and responding to natural disasters.
Thank you very much!
