After the General Statistics Office announced a 7.96% increase in GDP in the second quarter and a 7.52% increase in GDP in the first 6 months of the year - the highest level in the past 15 years, many financial institutions have adjusted their forecasts for Vietnam's economic growth. UOB Bank raised its forecast from 6% to 6.9%, Citigroup raised it from 6.6% to 7%, and Maybank forecast a growth rate of 7.3%.
In the country, some securities companies also expressed a positive view. Thien Viet Securities (TVS) assessed the economic recovery momentum after the COVID-19 period as "sustainable". VnDirect forecasts Vietnam's GDP in 2025 to reach about 7.3%. SHS and VCBS also gave optimistic scenarios for the stock market based on macro expectations and market upgrades.
Notably, Yuanta Vietnam Securities Company raised its GDP forecast for 2025 to 7.4%, higher than the previously set 6.8%. The reason for the adjustment is the growth results exceeding the expectation of 7.52% in the first 6 months of the year.
We believe that the growth driver will shift from exports, industrial production to domestic consumption and public investment more clearly in the second half of the year, said Mr. Nguyen The Minh - Director of Research and Development of Individual Customers of Yuanta Vietnam.
According to Yuanta, the slowdown in production and exports is predictable, as many businesses have taken advantage of the early delivery period to take advantage of the US tax delay. On the contrary, internal motivations such as consumption and public investment are increasingly effective.
Total public investment disbursed in the first 6 months of 2025 reached about VND 268,100 billion, up 42.3% over the same period. Major infrastructure projects are being accelerated by the rearrangement of the local government apparatus, significantly shortening the time for processing documents. At the same time, domestic consumption maintained its recovery momentum thanks to improved income, growth in tourism and effective stimulus policies.
On the other hand, loose monetary policy helps reduce borrowing costs, supporting production and consumption. The State Bank maintains the growth support orientation, while maintaining exchange rate stability and controlling inflation.
In the stock market, Yuanta noted that investor sentiment is getting more positive. Although in the short term VN-Index may face pressure to adjust in the strong resistance zone, the medium and long-term trend is still considered optimistic.
The positive sentiment was clearly reflected in the stock market today (September 10), with a clear recovery in the large-cap group. At the end of the session, the VN-Index increased by 14.32 points to 1,445.64 points. The trading volume reached more than 1.12 billion shares, equivalent to a value of more than VND 27,412 billion.
Foreign investors continue to net buy thousands of billions of VND. On HOSE, foreign investors net bought VND 1,074 billion; while net selling VND 38.5 billion on HNX and nearly VND 54 billion on UPCOM.
