The National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting has issued a nationwide seasonal hydro-metropoleum forecast bulletin (ie from June to November 2025).
Dr. Hoang Phuc Lam - Deputy Director of the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting said that currently, the ENSO phenomenon is in neutral conditions, with the standard deviation of sea surface temperature in the central equatorial Pacific Ocean at approximately the same level as the average of many years.
From June to August 2025, ENSO is likely to maintain a neutral state with a probability of 70 - 90%.
From September to November 2025, the ENSO phenomenon is likely to continue to remain neutral with a probability of 55 - 65%.
ENSO has a major impact on global atmospheric circulation, thereby affecting the weather around the world. ENSO has three main phases: El Nino (hot phase), La Nina phase and neutral phase - appearing in cycles of 2 to 7 years.
The ENSO forecast is an important tool to issue early warnings about the rainy and stormy season.
"With ENSO at a neutral stage, the trend forecast from now until November 2025, storms and tropical depressions are likely to operate in the East Sea and affect our country at a level close to the average of many years" - Mr. Hoang Phuc Lam commented.
According to the average data of many years, in the period from June to August, there will be about 5.2 storms or tropical depressions in the East Sea, making landfall in 2 storms.
From September to November, there are an average of 5.9 storms or tropical depressions in the East Sea each year, with 2.9 of them making landfall.
Mr. Lam added that the average data for many years during the whole storm season is about 11 - 13 storms or tropical depressions active in the East Sea, of which about 5 - 6 are affecting the mainland of Vietnam.
The storm season is about to begin, the meteorological agency warns that storms, tropical depressions and southwest monsoons are likely to cause strong winds and large waves affecting the activities of ships and activities in the East Sea area.
Assoc.Prof.Dr. Mai Van Khiem - Director of the National Hydrometeorological Forecast Center emphasized that currently, we predict the trend of weather time and monthly period. However, to predict whether or not the storm appears, the storms affecting, the most modern technologies of the international and Vietnamese are all forecasting enough reliability in advance about 3-5 days. Therefore, people should monitor the official information forecasting short term from meteorological agency for storm forecast.
Some concepts of ENSO according to the Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Climate Change:
El Nino: El Nino is a concept used to refer to the phenomenon of abnormal warming of the surface water layer in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. El Nino is also known as the "hot spot".
La Nina: In contrast to El Nino, La Nina is a concept used to refer to the abnormal cold phenomenon of the surface water layer in the eastern equatorial sea of the Pacific Ocean. La Nina is also known as the "cold flood".
Southern fluctuations (SO): SO is a concept used to refer to the fluctuation phenomenon of the pressure difference between the western and central equatorial Pacific.
ENSO: Because the two phenomena El Nino/La Nina (ocreatic) and SO ( atmospheric) occurring on the equator TBD are closely related, they are linked together into a dual phenomenon, abbreviated as ENSO.
