The National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting has forecast the climate trend from now until January 2027.
Accordingly, currently, ENSO is in a weak La Nina state with a sea surface temperature deviation in the central Pacific region at -0.5 degrees C.
It is forecasted that in the next three months, the ENSO phenomenon is likely to shift to a neutral state with a probability of about 75 - 85%, while the probability in La Nina state decreases compared to previous forecast periods and fluctuates in the range of 15 - 25%.
From May - July 2026, ENSO is likely to maintain a neutral state with a probability in the range of 55 - 65%, the probability of transitioning to El Nino state tends to gradually increase and in the range of 35 - 45%, the probability in La Nina state is very low.
From around the last months of summer and early autumn 2026, ENSO is likely to be in a neutral but hot phase state with a probability of about 55 - 65%. It is possible that ENSO will transition to El Nino state in the last months of 2026 - early 2027.
ENSO is one of the important bases in forecasting climate trends, especially the storm and flood season globally and in Vietnam.
According to Mr. Mai Van Khiem - Director of the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, Department of Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, it is forecasted that in 2026, the atmosphere-ocean system will undergo many phase transition states.
With the continuous phase transition nature of such a large-scale ENSO phenomenon, atmosphere-ocean conditions will be unstable. This may be the cause of extreme weather and climate phenomena such as strong storms, heavy rains... appearing in 2026" - Mr. Khiem analyzed.
Forecast from February to July 2026, storms and tropical depressions operating in the East Sea area and affecting our country are likely at a level equivalent to the multi-year average. According to multi-year average data from February to July, there are about 3.8 storms/tropical depressions in the East Sea, making landfall 1.2 storms.
From July 2026 - January 2027, the forecast number of storms and tropical depressions operating in the East Sea and affecting the mainland is likely to be lower than the multi-year average. The meteorological agency recommends to be wary of strong storms in the above period. According to multi-year average data during this period, there are about 9.6 storms in the East Sea, with 3.8 storms making landfall.
In which, from August to September 2026, storms and tropical depressions will mainly affect the northern provinces. From September to December 2026, storms and tropical depressions will mainly affect the central and southern provinces. Then in the first months of 2027, storms/tropical depressions are unlikely to appear in the East Sea.
The director of the meteorological agency warned that to date, the impacts and consequences of climate change have been clearly seen, making the weather and climate increasingly extreme, unstable and abnormal.
We cannot be sure when extreme natural disasters will occur, but it is almost certain that the frequency, intensity and severity of extreme weather phenomena will continue to increase in the future, not just in 2026 alone.
Therefore, closely monitoring weather developments and regularly updating forecast bulletins, especially short-term forecasts, is extremely necessary to proactively respond" - Mr. Khiem recommended.
