The National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting has forecast the weather trend for the seasonal period (from July - December 2026). In which, noteworthy information is the forecast of ENSO trend and the activity of storms and tropical depressions in this year's storm season.
El Nino forecast to peak from November 2026
Regarding the ENSO developments, according to Mr. Nguyen Duc Hoa - Deputy Head of the Climate Forecasting Department, National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, currently, ENSO has switched to El Nino state. It is forecasted that in the next three months, the ENSO phenomenon will remain in El Nino state and the intensity tends to continue to increase gradually.
In the period from October to December 2026, the ENSO phenomenon continues to maintain the El Nino state with strong intensity.
Especially the probability of El Nino occurring is very strong, increasing to 63% in the period November 2026 - January 2027" - Mr. Hoa said.
The number of storms may decrease, but the risk of natural disasters is still very high.
ENSO is one of the important bases in forecasting climate trends, especially the storm and flood season globally and in Vietnam.
Regarding the storm season, Mr. Nguyen Duc Hoa said that it is forecast that from July to September 2026, storms/tropical depressions will operate in the East Sea area and directly affect the mainland at a level equivalent to the multi-year average. According to multi-year average data in the period July to September in the East Sea, there are about 6.5 storms/tropical depressions, making landfall 2.8 storms.
From October to December 2026, storms/tropical depressions will operate in the East Sea area and directly affect the mainland at a lower level than the multi-year average. According to multi-year average data in the period October to December in the East Sea, there are about 4.5 storms/tropical depressions, making landfall 1.9 storms.
It is forecast that the number of storms and tropical depressions in the East Sea will tend to be lower than in 2025 and lower than the multi-year average. We predict that for the entire storm season of 2026, there will be about 8 - 11 storms/tropical depressions appearing in the East Sea area and possibly including 3 - 5 storms directly affecting our mainland" - Mr. Hoa added.
According to multi-year averages, the entire storm season has about 12.7 storms in the East Sea, of which 5.1 have made landfall.
Representatives of the Special Climate Forecasting Department emphasized that in the year of El Nino, there are usually fewer storms in the East Sea region as well as direct impacts on the mainland compared to the average of many years, but the risk of natural disasters related to storms is still very high.
In El Nino year, it is necessary to be wary of complex trajectories as well as strong or unusual storm intensity compared to previous years, so people should absolutely not be subjective when the peak storm season is approaching" - Mr. Hoa advised.
The meteorological agency noted that seasonal forecasting information is trend forecasting in nature. The meteorological agency especially emphasized that in the context of climate change, weather, and climate are increasingly complicated with many dangerous and extreme forms such as heavy rain in a short time, flash floods, landslides...
Therefore, it is proposed to regularly update and integrate forecast information and hydrometeorological warnings in 1-3 day short-term bulletins, to promptly adjust production plans, appropriate response plans, especially appropriate reservoir operation plans, ensuring the safety of works and downstream areas, and at the same time ensuring safety for production and people's livelihoods.
