Strong El Nino can cause climate variability
Mr. Mai Van Khiem - Director of the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, Department of Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, gave his assessments of the possibility of El Nino appearing in the near future.
Accordingly, from the beginning of 2026 to now, the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting has continuously maintained its assessment of the possibility of forming El Nino in the late 2026 period.
The latest forecast updates show that the probability of El Nino occurring is clearly increasing, with the possibility of appearing in the late 2026 period being about 70 - 80% and possibly extending to 2027. Most current forecast models are leaning towards the scenario of El Nino reaching strong intensity" - Mr. Khiem emphasized.
The scenario of El Nino at the end of this year with the sea surface temperature deviation of the Nino 3.4 region is commonly equivalent to very strong El Nino events in the past such as 1982 - 1983, 1997 - 1998 and 2015 - 2016, when the Oceanic Nino Index both exceeded +2 degrees Celsius and caused many global climate fluctuations.
However, according to Mr. Khiem, only a few isolated models offer extreme scenarios with intensity that may exceed previous record levels. It should be noted that long-term forecasts for ENSO are still uncertain, especially during the seasonal transition period, which is certainly not high.
Therefore, at the present time, it is still early to confirm the possibility of the appearance of "super El Nino". The National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting is continuing to monitor closely and will promptly update new developments in the near future" - Mr. Khiem added.
Hot weather will be more intense and appear more in 2025
Regarding the upcoming hot weather, representatives of the meteorological agency also said that in the coming months, hot weather will increase, and the intensity is assessed to be more intense than in the same period many years ago.
From about May, it will appear more, hot spells will also be strong in the Northern and Central regions and will increase in intensity until August 2026. Then from about September 2026, hot weather tends to gradually decrease. Hot weather in 2026 is likely to occur more and more intensely than the same period in 2025" - Mr. Khiem assessed.
Warning of prolonged hot weather and the hot and dry foehn wind effect caused by the low pressure area in the west, causing a high risk of fires and explosions in residential areas due to increased electricity demand and a high risk of forest fires. In addition, hot weather can also cause dehydration and exhaustion due to heat shock for the human body when exposed to high temperatures for a long time.
