The Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Climate Change has issued a climate forecast for the 3-month period (from September to November 2025) based on climate change analysis, the Institute's statistical model, and forecast bulletins from major climate centers around the world.
The reporter had an interview with Dr. Truong Ba Kien, Deputy Director of the Center for Meteorological and Climate Research - Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Climate Change - about the most notable weather features in the above period.
Dr. Truong Ba Kien, is ENSO's activities still neutral and when will the summer monsoon end?
- Currently, atmospheric and ocean conditions reflect ENSO being in a neutral state, leaning towards the cold phase. ENSO is forecast to maintain a neutral state, leaning towards the cold phase from September to November 2025, with a probability of about 55 - 60%.
In the next 3 months, the temperature is likely to be approximately the average of many years in the North, from Thanh Hoa to Hue; approximately to higher than the average of many years in the Central Highlands, South Central Coast and South.
The end of the summer monsoon is likely to be close to the average of many years, i.e. around the beginning to mid-October.
Thus, there is only about 1 month left, the summer monsoon will end. So when is the forecast for the first cold front to start, sir?
- ENSO is forecast to maintain a neutral state, leaning towards the cold phase, so the cold air may arrive early. The first weak cold air waves usually appear around the end of September and early October. The winter monsoon is likely to start at approximately the average of many years (ie at the end of October) and increase in intensity from November.
Storms and tropical depressions tend to concentrate in the last months of the year. What do you have to note about the storm trend in the next 3 months?
- Regarding rainfall trends, in the next 3 months, total rainfall is likely to be approximately the average of many years in the North; approximately to higher than the average of many years in the Central and South Highlands; higher than the average of many years in the Thanh Hoa to Hue and South Central Coast regions.
We also pay special attention to the possibility of extreme rainfall in the Central region.
Regarding storm trends, in the 3 months from September to November, the number of tropical cyclones active in the East Sea and affecting Vietnam (especially in the Central region) is likely to be approximately equal to or higher than the average of many years.
Accordingly, on average, many years from September to November have about 5 - 6 storms/tropical depressions active in the East Sea and 3 - 4 storms directly affecting the mainland of Vietnam. One of these was Typhoon No. 7 in early September.
However, it is worth noting that the number of strong storms (from level 12 and above) active in the East Sea is likely to be approximately equal to or higher than the average of many years.
Sincerely thank you!
