The National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting has issued a nationwide seasonal hydro-metropoleum forecast bulletin (ie from July to December 2025).
Dr. Hoang Phuc Lam - Deputy Director of the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting said that currently, the ENSO phenomenon continues to be in neutral conditions. From July to September, ENSO is likely to maintain a neutral state with a probability of 70 - 90%.
From October to December, the ENSO phenomenon is likely to continue to remain neutral with a probability of 55 - 65%.
ENSO has a major impact on global atmospheric circulation, thereby affecting the weather around the world. ENSO has three main phases: El Nino (hot phase), La Nina phase and neutral phase - appearing in cycles of 2 to 7 years.
The ENSO forecast is an important tool to issue early warnings about the rainy and stormy season.
"With ENSO's development at a neutral stage, the trend forecast from now until December is that storms and tropical depressions are likely to operate in the East Sea and affect our country at a level close to the average of many years" - Mr. Hoang Phuc Lam commented.
According to the average data of many years, from now until September, there will be about 6.4 storms or tropical depressions in the East Sea, of which 2.9 will make landfall.
From October to December, there are an average of 4.6 storms or tropical depressions in the East Sea every year, with 1.9 of them making landfall.
Associate Professor, Dr. Mai Van Khiem - Director of the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting added that the forecast for the number of storms/tropical depressions in 2025 is likely to be approximately the average of many years (ie about 11 - 13 storms/tropical depressions in the East Sea, affecting the mainland about 5 - 6 storms).
"We also do not rule out the possibility of strong and very strong storms (ie winds above level 12) appearing this year. Especially in the context of the impact of climate change, many adverse factors cause storm activities to increase more suddenly and frequently" - Mr. Khiem analyzed.
The storm season has begun, the meteorological agency warns that storms, tropical depressions and southwest monsoons are likely to cause strong winds and large waves affecting the activities of ships and activities in the East Sea area.
Previously, in the early morning of June 10, a low pressure area in the North East Sea area strengthened into a tropical depression. On the morning of June 11, the tropical depression strengthened into storm No. 1 (international name Wutip).
The natural disaster from June 10 to 14, 2025 due to the impact of storm No. 1 is of a special, unusual and extreme nature, rare in the history of hydrometeorology in the Central region.
The meteorological agency said that this is the first storm in the East Sea to appear in June in more than 40 years, and is also the first storm to cause particularly heavy rain in the Central Central region in June since 1952, with rainfall far exceeding previous records.
