The 2025 natural disaster and flood season has begun with storm No. 1 with many rare characteristics. Looking back at 2024, the world will see many strong storms such as Geami, Yagi, Krathon in Asia or Boris in Europe and Helene, Milton in a row entering the US. Compared to previous years, the number of super typhoons in 2024 is unusual.
Dr. Truong Ba Kien - Deputy Director of the Center for Meteorological and Climate Research, Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Climate Change has given analysis surrounding this situation.
Sir, why are there more and more strong storms and super typhoons?
- The primary cause is climate change, which increases the temperature of both the ocean and the atmosphere. 2024 is considered the hottest year on record and the temperature will continue to increase in the future, further changing the energy balance in the Earth's atmosphere, leading to changes in atmospheric circulation and increased evaporation.
As a result, the frequency of extreme, illegal phenomena, especially storms, has increased.
The origin of tropical cyclones is formed and developed in the oceans, with the initial condition for sea temperatures to be greater than 26 degrees Celsius. When sea levels warm, it provides more water and steam and energy for weather systems, leading to the formation of more stronger storms and the intensity of these storms also increases.
According to the 6th report of the Intergovernmental Committee on Climate Change, the average intensity of storms increased by about 11% due to climate change. If global temperatures rise 1 degree Celsius, the storm's destructiveness will increase by an average of 40%.
In 2024, many storms will reach super typhoon level such as Geami, Yagi, Krathon or Helene, Milton and especially records of storm intensity such as Yagi in Vietnam increasing by level 8 in 48 hours; Milton in the US increasing by twice in intensity in 24 hours.
With the current rate of climate change, what is the forecast for the risk of strong storms in the future, sir?
- Reliable evidence is increasingly confirmed that the number of storms may increase or decrease in different coastal areas in the future. However, the intensity of the storm is likely to increase.
The frequency of super typhoon and stronger typhoon repeats is greater. We will face some unusual forces in the intensity and number of strong storms.
Sir, so what is the forecast for the upcoming 2025 storm season?
- According to statistics on the relationship between ENSO and storm/tropical depression activities, in 2025, the number of storms active in the East Sea is forecast to be approximately the average of many years.
The average number of years in the East Sea has about 12 - 13 storms/tropical depressions; of which about 6 - 7 affect the mainland of Vietnam. Typically, the typhoon season is from June to November.
Sincerely thank you!
