The time when ENSO changes phase is approaching and will have a big impact on Vietnam's weather.
According to Mr. Nguyen Van Huong - Head of Weather Forecast Department, National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, currently, ENSO phenomenon is in neutral state. It is forecasted that from September to November 2024, ENSO is likely to transition to La Nina state with a probability of 60 - 70%.
"In September, as La Nina begins to impact, rainfall in the North and Central regions is forecast to be higher than the average of many years. The time when La Nina gradually strengthens its impact coincides with the period of floods in the Central region. Therefore, we warn that from September to November, storms, rains, and floods may appear in succession," Mr. Huong analyzed.
Mr. Huong also noted that the point of concern during this year's storm season is the possibility of tropical depressions and storms appearing right in the East Sea. Therefore, the formation time is short, the direct impact on Vietnam's mainland is very fast, so forecasting and response work will be more urgent than when storms move in from the Northwest Pacific region.
Associate Professor, Dr. Mai Van Khiem - Director of the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting emphasized that La Nina can increase the frequency and intensity of storms and tropical depressions, making them stronger and more unusual, especially in the final period of the year. This poses a risk of negative impacts on coastal fishing and aquaculture activities.
"In addition, it is almost certain that the phenomenon of thunderstorms and extreme heavy rains in short periods of time will appear more and more frequently" - Associate Professor, Dr. Mai Van Khiem warned.
Some concepts of ENSO according to the Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Climate Change:
El Nino : El Nino is a term used to describe the abnormal warming of surface waters in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. El Nino is also known as the "warm phase".
La Nina: The opposite of El Nino, La Nina is a concept used to describe the phenomenon of abnormal cooling of surface waters in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. La Nina is also known as the "cold phase".
Southern Oscillation (SO): SO is a concept used to describe the phenomenon of oscillation of the pressure difference between the western and central equatorial Pacific Ocean.
ENSO: Because the two phenomena El Nino/La Nina (ocean) and SO (atmosphere) occurring on the equator of the Pacific Ocean are closely related, they are linked together into a dual phenomenon, abbreviated as ENSO.
