The Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Climate Change has issued a climate forecast for the period from August to October 2024 based on analysis of climate developments, the Institute's statistical models, and forecast newsletters. of major climate centers in the world.
Accordingly, in terms of ENSO activity, currently, atmosphere-ocean conditions reflect a neutral state. The ENSO forecast is likely to shift to La Nina status in the next three months (from August to October) with a probability of about 70%.
The intensity of the summer monsoon is stronger than average for many years in the middle and end of the season. The summer monsoon is likely to end at approximately the same level as many years later than average.
The temperature trend in the 3 months from August to October is higher than the average value of many years during the same period in most of the country.
The heat and intense heat in the Northern and North Central regions are likely to continue until September 2024, with a major focus on August and the possibility of high temperature records.
Total rainfall in the next 3 months is likely to be approximately to higher than the average for many years in the North, Central Highlands, and South. Total rainfall in the Central region is higher than the average for many years.
Also according to the climate research agency, it is necessary to prevent heavy rains from causing floods in the Northern and Central regions. The rainy season in the Central Highlands and Southern regions is likely to end approximately to later than average for many years.
The Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Climate Change said that from August to October, the number of tropical storms/low pressure operating in the East Sea and affecting Vietnam was higher than the average for many years. Accordingly, on average in many years there are about 7-8 storms and tropical depressions in the East Sea; Of which, there were about 4-6 storms affecting Vietnam in the same period mentioned above.
The number of tropical cyclones (storms/tropical depressions) operating in the East Sea and affecting Vietnam in 2024 is approximately to higher than the average of many years and concentrated in the second half of the storm season. On average, there are about 12 - 14 tropical cyclones in the East Sea; 8 - 9 storms affected Vietnam.
Particularly in the Central region, the number of tropical cyclones is likely to be higher than the average for many years. Beware of strong storms that appear continuously in the second half of the storm season.
