The assessment of the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting on the natural disaster situation in 2026 has some notable developments.
According to Mr. Mai Van Khiem - Director of the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, hot weather is likely to last and become intense.
Hot weather is concentrated in the period from April to August. The risk of drought, water shortage, and saltwater intrusion is increasing, especially in the Central, Central Highlands and Southern regions" - Mr. Khiem said.
Regarding the activity of tropical cyclones, representatives of the meteorological agency said that the forecast number of storms and tropical depressions in the East Sea tends to be close to or lower than the multi-year average. According to multi-year average data, there are about 12.7 storms in the East Sea, of which 5.1 storms make landfall.
However, this year, it is necessary to pay special attention to the risk of strong, even very strong storms, rapidly intensifying (cauching the risk of super typhoons), complex orbits and operating times, difficult to predict" - Mr. Khiem warned.
ENSO is one of the important bases in forecasting climate trends, especially the storm and flood season globally and in Vietnam.
According to the drought climate trend bulletin from the meteorological agency, it is forecast that from April to June, the ENSO phenomenon is likely to gradually shift to a neutral state with a probability of 80 - 90%, while the La Nina state falls below 10%.
In the period July to September 2026, ENSO tends to shift to El Nino phase with a probability of about 60 - 70%, while neutral phase decreases with a probability of about 20 - 30%, La Nina phase is forecast to be at a very low level.
With the continuous phase transition nature of such a large-scale ENSO phenomenon, the atmosphere-ocean conditions will be unstable. This may be the cause of extreme weather and climate phenomena in 2026" - Mr. Khiem assessed.
Regarding the trend of natural disasters, according to representatives of the meteorological agency, the impacts and consequences of climate change make weather and climate increasingly extreme, unstable and abnormal.
We cannot be sure when extreme natural disasters will occur, but it is almost certain that the frequency, intensity and severity of extreme weather phenomena will continue to increase in the future, not just in 2026 alone.
Therefore, closely monitoring weather developments and regularly updating forecast bulletins, especially short-term forecasts, is extremely necessary to proactively respond" - Mr. Khiem warned.
Previously, natural disasters in 2025 occurred rapidly, fiercely, on a large scale, with many unusual factors, exceeding historical levels.
Regarding storms, there have been 21 storms and tropical depressions in the East Sea (15 storms and 6 tropical depressions), exceeding the 2017 record of 20 storms (16 storms, 4 tropical depressions in the East Sea). Among them are storms moving very quickly, with very strong intensity and against regulations.
Regarding rain and floods, flooding, extreme heavy rain, and floods exceeding historical levels on 21 river routes in the Northern and Central regions.
In 2025, natural disasters caused serious damage to people and property, infrastructure, affecting the lives and livelihoods of people and socio-economic activities. As of December 31, 2025, natural disasters have caused 484 deaths, missing persons, and 811 injuries. Total estimated damage is over 104,733 billion VND.
