The National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting has forecast the weather trend for the seasonal period (from September 2026 - February 2027). In which, noteworthy information is the forecast of ENSO trend and the activity of storms and tropical depressions in this year's storm season.
El Nino continues to maintain strong to very strong intensity
Regarding the developments of ENSO, currently, ENSO is in El Nino state. It is forecasted that in the period from September to November 2026, the El Nino state will continue to maintain strong to very strong intensity with a probability of 100%. Of which about 7% of El Nino reaches strong intensity and 93% of El Nino reaches very strong intensity.
In addition, the period from October to December 2026, the El Nino state has a very strong intensity, reaching a highest probability of up to 95%.
In the period from December 2026 to February 2027, the El Nino phenomenon continues to maintain strong to very strong intensity with a probability of 93%. Of which 23% probability reaches strong intensity and 70% reaches very strong intensity.
The number of storms is likely to be less, but the risk of strong and complex storms
ENSO is one of the important bases in forecasting climate trends, especially the storm and flood season globally and in Vietnam.
Forecast from September 2026 to February 2027, storms/tropical depressions will operate in the East Sea area and make landfall at a lower level than the multi-year average.
It is forecast that from September to November, there will be about 3-5 storms/tropical depressions operating in the East Sea area and about 1-2 storms making landfall in Vietnam, lower than the multi-year average. According to multi-year average data from September to November, there will be 5.9 storms in the East Sea, and 2.9 storms making landfall.
On average, in many years from December of the previous year to February of the following year in the East Sea, there are 1.4 storms, landing inland 0.2 storms.
Previously, from June 2026 to now, 2 tropical depressions and 5 storms have occurred in the East Sea area.
In the year of El Nino, there are usually fewer storms in the East Sea area as well as direct impacts on land compared to the average of many years, but the risk of natural disasters related to storms is still very high. It is necessary to be wary of complex trajectories as well as strong storm intensity or more unusual than in previous years.
The meteorological agency noted that seasonal forecasting information is trend forecasting in nature. The meteorological agency especially emphasized that in the context of climate change, weather, and climate are increasingly complicated with many dangerous and extreme forms such as heavy rain in a short time, flash floods, landslides...
Therefore, it is proposed to regularly update and integrate forecast information and hydrometeorological warnings in 1-3 day short-term bulletins, to promptly adjust production plans and appropriate response plans, especially reservoir operation plans, ensuring the safety of works and downstream areas, and at the same time ensuring safety for production and people's livelihoods.
