Storm and tropical depression activity is expected to increase in the coming months. Previously, there were 2 storms and 1 tropical depression in the East Sea. Although it is the first storm of the season, the natural disaster and flood caused by storm No. 1 Wutip is of a special, unusual and extreme nature, rare in the history of hydrometeorology in the Central region.
Associate Professor, Dr. Mai Van Khiem - Director of the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting has given notable analysis related to the trend of this year's storm season.
Dr. Mai Van Khiem, can you give your assessment of the trend of storms and tropical depressions in the East Sea and the possibility of affecting Vietnam in 2025?
- We can hardly predict far and fully identify natural disasters for the entire storm season. However, with the current monitoring data, it can be concluded that this year, weather patterns and extreme climates will be mainly dominated by the phenomenon of ENSO being in a neutral state.
During the ENSO neutral years, the number of storms and tropical depressions active in the East Sea and affecting Vietnam is not as large as in strong La Nina years or not too small as in strong El Nino years.
The forecast for the number of storms and tropical depressions this year is approximately the average of many years, the whole season ranges from 11 to 13 storms, tropical depressions operating in the East Sea and about 5-6 storms directly affecting our mainland.
So this year ENSO is in a neutral state, is there a risk of a strong storm or not, sir?
- Usually in a neutral state, the extreme nature of the natural disaster season is not as much as in strong La Nina or strong El Nino years.
However, we would like to emphasize that in terms of average climate statistics, the accuracy is only about 80%; the rest still have about 20% errors.
That means even years when ENSO is neutral can still have extreme natural disasters like years of strong La Nina or strong El Nino.
The proof is that we have recently witnessed extreme heavy rains, exceeding records.
We also do not rule out the possibility of strong and very strong storms (ie winds above level 12) appearing this year. Especially in the context of the impact of climate change, many adverse factors cause storm activities to increase more frequently.
With current forecasting technology, can we predict and warn of storms and tropical depressions reliably in the first few days, sir?
- Current forecasting technology, including those of Vietnam and the world, has the highest reliability in the short term, especially 3 - 5 days before the impact of storms or tropical depressions.
Sincerely thank you!
According to the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, from July to September 2025, ENSO is likely to maintain a neutral state with a probability of 70 - 90%. From October to December 2025, the ENSO phenomenon is likely to continue to remain neutral with a probability of 55 - 65%. The ENSO forecast is an important tool for issuing warnings about the storm season.
