The National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting has provided forecast information on ENSO developments in the next 6 months (from September 2024 to February 2025).
Regarding the ENSO phenomenon, it is forecasted that in the period from September to November 2024, ENSO is likely to transition to La Nina state with a probability of 60 - 70%.
From December 2024 to February 2025, ENSO is forecast to remain in La Nina state with a probability of about 65 - 75%.
According to Mr. Nguyen Van Huong - Head of Division Weather Forecast, National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, in years when La Nina affects, the storms and floods are more severe than in normal years. Most recently, 2020 also had a similar ENSO scenario when the beginning of the year was El Nino and the end of the year switched to La Nina. 2020 is a record year for many types of natural disasters.
Forecasting tropical cyclone activity, the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting said that from September to November 2024, storm and tropical depression activity in the East Sea is likely to occur at levels close to or higher than the average of many years. Accordingly, on average, there are about 5.9 tropical cyclones in operation over many years.
The forecast number of storms and tropical depressions making landfall in the next 3 months may be higher than the average of many years (an average of 2.9 storms) and will be concentrated in the Central region and southern provinces.
"It is important to note that in the upcoming 2024 storm season, we need to be on guard against the possibility of storms/tropical depressions forming right in the East Sea area," Dr. Hoang Phuc Lam emphasized.
From December 2024 to February 2025, storms/tropical depressions in the East Sea are likely to appear at a level approximately equal to the multi-year average (an average of 1.4 storms) and may affect the mainland.
In addition, Mr. Lam also warned that in the second half of the year, storms/tropical depressions, southwest monsoons, and northeast monsoons are likely to cause strong winds and large waves affecting activities in the East Sea area.
According to the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, from the second half of August to September, due to the influence of the southwest monsoon, storms and tropical depressions, the sea off the coast of the South Central and Southern provinces is likely to have waves 2-3m high, sometimes over 3m.
From October to November 2024, due to the influence of the northeast monsoon and large waves combined with rising water due to the influence of storms and low pressure, off the coast of the Central and Southern regions, there is a possibility of waves 2-4m high, sometimes over 4m; rough seas.
The meteorological agency also noted that long-term warning bulletins are often trend forecasts. Therefore, to have a better basis for weather forecast information, people should wait for short-term bulletins issued daily by the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting.
